Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by palo5

That was obvious from day one, and anyone who thought otherwise was a fantasist

Brexit means Bend Over!

But I fear it will be by our own politicians again, the spirit of Ted Heath lives on
Will Parliament have the balls to vote the deal down if it remains similar to the present offer?

It was not always obvious old chap, there was always the option to walk away and plenty of us have every confidence that our country can survive and thrive outside the EU, there is no way we would stop trading with the EU altogether but we want to be able to make our own trade arrangements globally

Tough words have been spoken by all sides but sadly our politicians have never had the nerve to provide the actions to go with their words.

[DB83]

I have not read the last few pages but I have this feeling coming back to St. Theresa's often repeated words "No deal is better than a bad deal"

But can anyone really suggest that what is on offer is not a bad deal >> more in than out blah blah

So I really do fear what she really meant. 'No deal' means they tear up Artichoke 50, give two fingers to all those who voted for Brexit and we wake up to find that we never leave.

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by DB83

I have not read the last few pages but I have this feeling coming back to St. Theresa's often repeated words "No deal is better than a bad deal"

I always think back to Churchill, perhaps not his most elevated rhetoric, but

"jaw-jaw is better than war-war"

People hate "talk", especially from grey government ministerial types, but this is what they're there for.

It is notable that Hillary Clinton is quoted this week with an implicit criticism of the EU's approach to migration policy-- which is of course one of the Brexiteer's biggest complaints.

Given time, cool heads, and a lot of talk-- I suspect everyone can get to something they can live with.

[haroldeye]

Conservative values are not necessarily intolerant, and "progressive" people are by no means necessarily liberal, enlightened or free from ignorance and prejudice. Having liberal opinions and having a liberal character are not the same things, as we saw for example in Vincent Cable and his very unpleasant and personal comments concerning older voters supporting Brexit - not really consistent with genuine liberal values IMHO. I flatter myself that I try to be reasonable and above all fair in my dealings with others; fair is a minimum standard, I would like to be better than fair when possible. But I do believe in standards and sometimes this means you have to be firm and hold the line against piss-takers. This is the philosophical basis of a lot of conservative thinking in this world.
__________________

When I first started posting in this thread about eight years ago you were a committed Liberal, later you had (like I did ) much angst about how to vote in the referendum. You have, however, always tried to be fair and always tried to maintain standards.

[palo5]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

...there was always the option to walk away and plenty of us have every confidence that our country can survive and thrive outside the EU, there is no way we would stop trading with the EU altogether but we want to be able to make our own trade arrangements globally

Tough words have been spoken by all sides but sadly our politicians have never had the nerve to provide the actions to go with their words.

I agree you have some politicians with poor judgment. Not a rarity in the world, but trying to force anything against 27 other Member States always looked like wishful thinking to me. Thinking they wouldn't hold together was a major strategic misjudgment

Another was hoping they would accommodate "bendy" rules & agreements that mean anything you want them to mean. The EU and Europe in general is not like that, and does not like that. They are legalistic and want hard definitions

[scoundrel]

Exactly how things will go over the next few weeks is difficult to say but is rather interesting. Mrs May hopes for a special EU summit on Sunday to confirm the deal as it were. But predictably enough there are some on the EU side who aren't entirely convinced. Some of them have concerns about the terms of trade and think Britain might be unfairly advantaged, though I can't see it from the British end, I must say. Some, notably France, want the agreement to include permission to carry on stealing British fish. But the one I find especially interesting is Spain wanting to get leverage on Britain over Gibraltar. They have (what a surprise) left it to the last gasp before making their play.

My original view of the EU joint declaration back in 2017 was that we should not even talk to the Eu about anything, including security and citizens rights, unless Article 24 of the declaration was removed. Gibraltar is a British sovereign territory and the Kingdom of Spain is not even entitled to have an opinion on what happens there. But since we have reached this tedious moment it seems logical to have Spain tell us all what she thinks is wrong. One never knows - she may have a reasonable point to make. But if she is just trying it on, as I suspect, then I reckon its No Deal.

Assuming we get past Spain and France and the Netherlands all wanting to shake us down at the last minute, then the next hurdle will be the House of Commons, probably the week after next. The way the numbers look just now, there is a majority of at least 80 MPs against this deal, possibly over 100 MPs. I have no idea how Mrs May will overcome that. Most likely she will be defeated, and if she is, things will get very hard to predict.

We should have done the sensible thing and negotiated a clean break with the EU. What we are getting now is a nonsense based on wanting to imitate EU membership as closely as we can. I sense it will unravel and that when it does, there will be no Plan B - just as when shit-for-brains David Cameron lost the referendum.

[palo5]

No one steals British fish. The problems are: you sold your quotas to other nations but try to blame them for "stealing"; and 80% of your catch is sold in the EU because you won't eat it, and prefer to eat other fish which is caught elsewhere by other people. Clear road for compromise here

Gibraltar should not be a problem with common sense. 98% want to be British and 98% want to stay in the EU. So make them an independent state: let them stay as British as they want, and they stay in the EU

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by palo5

No one steals British fish. The problems are: you sold your quotas to other nations but try to blame them for "stealing"; and 80% of your catch is sold in the EU because you won't eat it, and prefer to eat other fish which is caught elsewhere by other people. Clear road for compromise here

Gibraltar should not be a problem with common sense. 98% want to be British and 98% want to stay in the EU. So make them an independent state: let them stay as British as they want, and they stay in the EU

Once we leave, there won't be any quotas.

Not for the first time, Spain is alienating the Gibraltarians. They do not react well to being bullied. Neither do the rest of the British.

[jacques22]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

Some, notably France, want the agreement to include permission to carry on stealing British fish.

The hard Brexiters will do anything to discredit May's deal with the EU. That's why they try to present it as a betrayal of British fishing rights. Which is complete nonsense as explained in this piece:
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ng-industry-eu

The political declaration recognises Britain’s right to become an “independent coastal state”, ending the automatic rights of Irish and continental boats to fish within the UK 200-mile limit.
(...)
the issue is not fish quotas in return for an overall trade deal. It is continued quotas in return for continuing British fish trade with the continent.
It is inconceivable that France, Denmark and the rest will allow Britain easy access to their fish markets if we destroy much of their fishing industries by barring their boats. In any case, tariff-free and easy exports for British fish and shellfish are more important to large parts of the British fisheries industry than the right to increased quotas.
Britain exports the majority of the fish that it catches and imports most of the fish that it eats. Many of the “fragile” UK coastal communities that are supposed to benefit from Brexit depend on harvesting shellfish, of which 90% is exported to the continent. We also sell the greatest part of our herring and mackerel to other EU countries.
This is the issue ignored by the “take back our waters” promises of the Brexiteers. It is the issue now implicitly recognised in the words of the draft Brexit political declaration.

[scoundrel]

It will be interesting, as I say, to see what is really agreed. France certainly doesn't like the fisheries arrangement as proposed. She might refuse to ratify the deal.

I'm cool with that. I think this deal absolutely sucks. We would probably get a better deal by leaving without one and making trade arrangements after we are already out.