Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[bloke57]

Originally Posted by Devius

I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but the way this is going I fear future historians will look back in horror at the way this parliament (and I include all the major parties) has handled Brexit.

I'm not so sure - I think they will wonder how it was managed when a majority of MPs thought it was a bad idea and yet still acted, against their own consciences, to carry out the will of the people.

To my mind, it is being done wrong mainly by the pro-brexit group. They want to leave the EU yet still insist on negotiating a deal. Why?

When you leave a club you just hand in your membership card, shake hands and go. If you owe some money you just say "Well, send me an audited bill, I'll look it over and pay you accordingly"

As for the Irish issue - everyone seems to want an open border so why don't we just say "We are not going to put anything in place on our side so you just decide what you want to do on your side". We need do nothing.

In other words, why don't we just walk away? What is the point of negotiating? Why do people who want to leave wish to negotiate? Do they not have the courage of their avowed convictions?

I was pro-remain but now I say let's just go! That's what most people wanted. We will all probably be worse off in the short run but who knows what will happen in the long run or what might have happened if we'd stayed in?

Britain was bankrupt after WWII but we survived, set up the NHS and managed somehow. We are a big, resourceful country and we will do so again.

But please - let's just bugger off and leave the EU to its ever closer union, its democratic deficit and its soon-to-fail single currency.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by haroldeye

Emily Thornberry as much use as a chocolate fireguard.

Emily Thornberry has a very high opinion of herself based upon not a lot of genuine accomplishment or talent at all, really. Remember the white van tweet from the Rochester and Strood by-election? This woman is a very good example of the real attitude of "New Labour" towards ordinary working people, the sort of people who are the bedrock of any industrialised nation. Marie Antoinette could not have expressed it better. Once upon a time, Labour would have served and represented the interests of hard working people, skilled workers who often nowadays work from light commercial vehicles; people who have the effrontery to want to get on in life by working hard and learning a trade. These days? The Labour Party is run by the Tarquin and Mirandas of this world, the pretentious liberal elites who in many ways are far more snobbish and snooty than our genuine aristocrats were, and who add rank hypocrisy to the mix as well. If you work hard and want to gain a better start for your kids further down the line, then you are a class traitor, and presumably a reactionary bigot and racist into the bargain (the white van tweet).

This is the snobbery and arrogance which underpins the "Lets have another refereeeenduuuum" shit we keep hearing from the Labour MPs, not to mention the so-called Lib-Dems. They do not respect the ordinary people of the country and have no wish to respect their vote.

[vinceprince]

Originally Posted by bloke57

I was pro-remain but now I say let's just go! That's what most people wanted. We will all probably be worse off in the short run but who knows what will happen in the long run or what might have happened if we'd stayed in?

Easy too say if you are a pensioner whose income is guaranteed to rise with the inevitable further rise in inflation. (Not sure who's going to be paying all the tax to fund them)

Less easy to say if you work in a small business like ours which faces tariffs of high tariffs for our goods on WTO rules. Which will kill it stone dead.

Or if you work in financial services (not covered by WTO rules) and face being frozen out entirely out of the EU market with no 'passport' agreement.

[bloke57]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

Easy too say if you are a pensioner whose income is guaranteed to rise with the inevitable further rise in inflation. (Not sure who's going to be paying all the tax to fund them)

Less easy to say if you work in a small business like ours which faces tariffs of high tariffs for our goods on WTO rules. Which will kill it stone dead.

Or if you work in financial services (not covered by WTO rules) and face being frozen out entirely out of the EU market with no 'passport' agreement.

I take your point - but as I say, I was a remainer. I am actually questioning the resolve of the Brexiteers who trumpeted the "benefits" of leaving an yet are now running around in circles trying to get a deal. It was their daft idea to hold a simplistic referendum that caused all this. So, if they were so confident, why are the now acting in this way rather than just leaving?

In that way they have proved their own lie.

I suppose the only other counter argument I can offer is that uncertainty can be a bigger danger to business than going full WTO as it were. Perhaps if businesses knew we were just plain leaving, they could once again plan ahead.

So I hope you understand that it is the swaggering pro-brexit politicians I am having a go at, not small business persons such as your good self.

[haroldeye]

I was a reluctant leaver. I had before the vote a long conversation with a Greek University Lecturer from one of the better universities. He implored me to vote stay because he saw Britain as the one bastion against the cancer at the heart of the EU.

Reluctantly I voted leave and since then the actions of Selmayr, Verhofstadt, Barnier and most of all Junker have strengthened my resolve that I was right. None of them have done anything to do with what is best for the European peoples, they only care about their little project.

That's the problem with people of few ideas, they tend to cling on to them ferociously.

[Devius]

Theresa May "begged for help" from EU leaders when she had dinner with them in Brussels, a leaked report claims.

The Prime Minister had "deep rings under her eyes" and looked like she hadn't been sleeping, according to aides of Jean-Claude Juncker.

However the European Commission President Juncker has denied leaking the unsourced account of his dinner with the PM published in German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine.

Sources:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...aders-11393601
http://news.sky.com/story/anxious-ma...ncker-11094641

[EDIT] Hmm...I didn't know Juncker was a Whovian..

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

Easy too say if you are a pensioner whose income is guaranteed to rise with the inevitable further rise in inflation. (Not sure who's going to be paying all the tax to fund them)

Less easy to say if you work in a small business like ours which faces tariffs of high tariffs for our goods on WTO rules. Which will kill it stone dead.

Or if you work in financial services (not covered by WTO rules) and face being frozen out entirely out of the EU market with no 'passport' agreement.

Just for completeness of information: financial services are covered by WTO rules. See here.. Your point about passporting is correct, subject to whatever is or is not agreed in exit negotiations; but there are numerous banks located outside the EU who have registered a place of business, little more than a one room office, inside the EU, specifically for regulation and compliance with EU directives. Others have formed strategic alliances with EU registered players. There will certainly be business opportunities for Paris, Luxenbourg, Frankfurt and other rival financial centres (I suspect Dublin, where they speak English and have very similar generally accepted accounting practice, is the dark horse here). But I predict that none of the major banks or insurance companies will relocate their head offices to a regulatory environment set by the European Commission and the European Parliament, which have shown quite an aversion to bailouts and quantitative easing, and great willingness to meddle with things which they do not understand.

I seem to remember that Vince works in the agricultural trade sector and I agree that he is right to feel concerned about the likely consequences if we leave the EU without a trade agreement. WTO rules permit very high and destructive tariffs in food trade. There is a rather annoying and irresponsible game being played here by both sides in the exit talks. But a failure to settle a deal on food trade would have grave implications for many EU countries. We buy a lot of produce from Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal, as well as France and Belgium and Holland. There would not be any winners here. I still think that a deal will be struck, probably involving a delay in our actual departure from the structures of the EU to grant time for new arrangements in infrastructure and physical regulation to be worked out and introduced.

It is going to be a bumpy ride.

[vinceprince]

Though we have a trade deficit with the in goods EU (which is made up for partly by services - largely financial) the UK would come off far worse in any no deal scenario.

What the Brexit hardliners don't mention is our trade with the EU is 45% of our total trade whilst the EU's total trade with the UK is only 15% of theirs. (Those German carmakers would continue to thrive, not sure about ours though) So we would suffer a lot more than them. Far more than the £30-50 billion that we are quibbling about I would guess, but the cash is the only card we've got to play really.

With food the problem is not just tariffs but the delays and admin required due to customs controls especially with perishable goods. Just a strike for a few hours at Calais can result in South Kent becoming a massive lorry park which can last for days.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

Though we have a trade deficit with the in goods EU (which is made up for partly by services - largely financial) the UK would come off far worse in any no deal scenario.

What the Brexit hardliners don't mention is our trade with the EU is 45% of our total trade whilst the EU's total trade with the UK is only 15% of theirs. (Those German carmakers would continue to thrive, not sure about ours though) So we would suffer a lot more than them. Far more than the £30-50 billion that we are quibbling about I would guess, but the cash is the only card we've got to play really.

With food the problem is not just tariffs but the delays and admin required due to customs controls especially with perishable goods. Just a strike for a few hours at Calais can result in South Kent becoming a massive lorry park which can last for days.

I suppose we could have started substantive trade negotiations quite a while ago. But someone somewhere didn't want to do this. Pity.

As far as I can tell, the British government and the EU are indulging in brinkmanship. Who would suffer the most is not really the correct question to ask. The British side needs to explain in detail what it will and will not pay for. The EU side needs to accept that Britain is a sovereign nation and that the European Court of Justice will have no role whatsoever to play on our territory after we are gone. Both sides need to drop the snidey snidey comments and gossip about private conversations, and behave like grownups having a serious discussion.

[Devius]

Originally Posted by bloke57

I was pro-remain but now I say let's just go! That's what most people wanted. We will all probably be worse off in the short run but who knows what will happen in the long run or what might have happened if we'd stayed in?

Ditto - I was also pro-remain (reluctantly), but I'm now sick and tired of the whole bloody process.
Consider yesterday's quote from European Council president Donald Tusk to the European Parliament:

"It is in fact up to London how this will end: with a good deal, no deal or no Brexit. But in each of these scenarios we will protect our common interest only by being together."
Source:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41733429

I cannot seriously believe Tusk is so arrogant and DELUDED to consider that "No Brexit" is an option, and that the UK could reverse the Article 50 process....