Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

May has boxed herself in with her premature triggering of Article 50 with no idea of any plan and previous pledges on 'leaving' dates. And with her pledge to leave the Customs Union or EEA.

If there is a 'no deal' by the deadline, she and her Gov't are finished, the Tories implode.

Its not clear to me that Jeremy Corbyn has any interest in either remaining in the EU, or negotiating Brexit, so that, as bad as the Tories may be, they're likely the only game when it comes to someone to make this work

In bankruptcy law, the worst kind of mess is a "free fall" bankruptcy -- that's when company wasn't planning to go bust, just one day bills aren't paid, creditors go to court-- and the whole thing is a royal mess.

That's where UK & EU are likely to end up, on this timeline.

Originally Posted by vinceprince

Or she has to face the total humiliation of asking the EU and Parliament for an extension. Again she's politically finished and the Tories implode.

Seems really unpalatable, but its actually the best choice. Now to find someone from the EU and UK to own this unhappy but necessary delay.

Lurching towards a bad breakup because "we said we'd do it by Tuesday" . . . that's just nuts. Not saying that it won't happen, but if you look at international trade agreements -- ones much less fraught than Brexit-- they take a long time. If you look at something like the Trans Pacific Partnership (now canned by Trump, stupidly), that was more than a decade in the making.

These kinds of things just don't get done fast. And as you saw with TPP, even done slow, some times the politics change between the inception and the signing date, and don't get done for that reason.

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by ********

What the hell is Boris trying to do?

Be important without being worthwhile.

"Authority without responsibility" seems to be his aim.

[vinceprince]

Originally Posted by ********

What the hell is Boris trying to do?

Saw Micheal Cockerell's doc on Boris and student friends portray him as a bungling fantasist with Winston Churchill delusions going on in his head. Constantly saying the words 'Ah yes, Winnie' to himself.

Obviously sees himself as the great orator in his wilderness years before national disaster leads to him to being recalled to lead us to triumph.

The truth is he's just totally incompetent massive twat.
All ego and ambition, no substance.

[palo5]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

Potential and actual are not the same thing.

Well, you may not know it, but even Greece has the same number of active servicemen as the UK, and their reserves are bigger. There is a greater % of military-trained people in EU Member states than in UK, so what are you thinking? That the EU can't find enough men?

Anyway, before thinking UK is vital to European defense, think about the size of your army: you only have 78,000 men, and only half of them are in combat units. You only have 150 operational tanks. I know you're used to thinking you're vital, but to Europeans, in a practical sense you aren't

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by palo5

Anyway, before thinking UK is vital to European defense, think about the size of your army: you only have 78,000 men, and only half of them are in combat units. You only have 150 operational tanks. I know you're used to thinking you're vital, but to Europeans, in a practical sense you aren't

But they've actually deployed and fought. We've had a lot of experience with European armies that aren't really combat ready. We live in a world where there are quite a lot of forces which have seen a lot of action for the last twenty years-- and then there are others which haven't heard a shot fired in anger.

Its one thing to have the kit and show well on the range. Its quite another to have real combat experience . . .

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by palo5

Well, you may not know it, but even Greece has the same number of active servicemen as the UK, and their reserves are bigger. There is a greater % of military-trained people in EU Member states than in UK, so what are you thinking? That the EU can't find enough men?

Anyway, before thinking UK is vital to European defense, think about the size of your army: you only have 78,000 men, and only half of them are in combat units. You only have 150 operational tanks. I know you're used to thinking you're vital, but to Europeans, in a practical sense you aren't

Ah yes; the Greek military.

Roughly 900 Leopard I and Leopard II tanks, most of which don't run because Greece can't afford the spare parts. A large proportion of the tanks are distributed across various islands and so not readily available for mainland operations.

The Hellenic Air Force possesses about 120 F-16s; about 34 F-4 Phantoms which must be nearly as old as Palo-5; about 25 Dessault Mirage 2000s. How many of these are operational I don't know, but shortage of money to keep the birds flying is naturally going to be a problem. The highly trained pilots are ridiculously underpaid for the degree of skill they possess. Greece is about twice the land area of Ireland and is spread across a lot of sea, so this airforce is not an idle self-indulgence; the encroachments of Turkey and others need to be checked.

On paper Greece has a pretty decent Navy, as you would expect - she possesses 13 frigates, 11 submarines, 17 missile boats, 9 tank landing craft and a lot of smaller craft. I am not sure how long their radius of operations would be, and it would need to be quite long for this seasonable force to be effective as a component in a European Navy. But potentially Greece is most formidable as a sea power, and she has a long heritage in this area.

The difference between potential and actual is made up of resources and motivation. Thanks to the Euro, Greece will not be able to sustain the above military establishment. Capital spending on new generations of tanks, ships and aeroplanes will be hard to justify when people are dying of preventable and treatable ailments because the government cannot or will not pay for medicines. The ability to operate the equipment and participate in operations is weakened by lack of training caused by funding shortages. The ability to operate in cooperation with neighbouring militaries requires rehearsals and compatible equipment, and a bankrupt country is not able to mount these joint rehearsals.

Potentially, Greece is a military power of some note. But to be so in actuality, she needs resources which she does not have.

A considerable number of other EU countries have issues similar to Greece. It is not Britain which supports this inadequate defence structure, it is the United States.

[palo5]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

Ah yes; the Greek military

I picked Greece at random. But even though they only have 1:6 of your population, their trained military strength is about the same, and other EU Members are similar. The point is that the EU does not depend on UK for defense and never has

[palo5]

Originally Posted by deepsepia

Its one thing to have the kit and show well on the range. Its quite another to have real combat experience . . .

No doubt. But my father, who fought in WW1, the Revolution and WW2, told me you learn fast. Was he wrong?

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by palo5

No doubt. But my father, who fought in WW1, the Revolution and WW2, told me you learn fast. Was he wrong?

He wasn't wrong then, but that's not how 21st century Western armies fight -- that's part of why they're not much interested in conscripts.

What's really hard about modern small unit tactics is the very low densities; traditionally, men did stuff because there was a non-com behind them to scream at them if they didn't.

Watching a modern unit maneuver is astonishing-- people know what to do without being told, and without being on top of each other.

When old style 20th century armies go up against modern armies, they get cut to shreds, very fast.

There are also extraordinarily experienced adversaries. The Taliban, the Shebab, Islamic State, these are experienced and resourceful enemies. One good friend, a veteran of East African and Afghan deployments likes to say "that guy shooting at you-- he's the one we couldn't figure out how to kill".

[jacques22]

Confirmation that May's stubborn attitude is the reason why the EU and the UK can't reach any compromise over Ireland (from today's Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...irish-border):

While Theresa May opposes EU checks in British ports, recent reports suggest there is a loosening of opposition among Brexiters. The Brexit-supporting European Research Group, chaired by Jacob Rees-Mogg, will reportedly support the proposal in a Brexit blueprint due to be published this week, believing it will break “the logjam” and show willingness to Brussels.
One source said: “The ERG don’t care enough about Northern Ireland. But they are now very worried about a ‘no deal’ and timerunning out. They don’t want Ireland scuppering everything.”
They argue that EU officials checking trucks in British ports is no different in principle to having French police in St Pancras station in London checking passports of Eurostar passengers, or British border force operations in Calais.