Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[otokonomidori]

Originally Posted by jacques22

Thank you so much for poorly quoting me!

My point was about Brexit. So don't try to distort the fact that 62% of the Scottish electorate voted 'remain' and only 38% voted 'leave':
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Result...ferendum,_2016

Since you mention the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence (55.3% no, 44.7% yes), you must be aware that many Scots voted on the assumption that the UK would still be part of the EU,

Actually the majority of Scots in 2014 voted on the assumption that leaving the UK would be a very bad move - Brexit didn't enter into it one way or another.

Many SNP supporters voted for Brexit in the 2016 referendum - thus ignoring the instructions of their MacFuhrer and proving to the world that they don't know theirs arse from a hole in the ground.

Nor should you distort the fact that the 2016 vote was a nationwide vote i.e. the UK. Scotland is bound by that as much as is London which didn't vote for Brexit either but I don't see them leaving the UK anytime soon.

It's worth keeping in mind that I actually live in Scotland and am perhaps more aware than you of the decline in support for the SNP, of their utter failure in government and of the fact that their support is a very noisy and unlettered minority.

[Brecht]

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

Actually the majority of Scots in 2014 voted on the assumption that leaving the UK would be a very bad move - Brexit didn't enter into it one way or another.

They were right to do so in 2014 but that was when no one anticipated something like the Brexit referendum. Brexit didn't enter into it because it simply didn't exist as an issue. I suppose a lot of Scots who voted to remain in the UK in 2014 felt cheated after England decided for them in 2016.

What kind of deal will be made with the EU, will there be another referendum for Scottish independence, how will the border issue affect peace in Northern Ireland and what are the consequences for Britain's economy? These questions hint to many uncertainties regarding the future of the UK. Too many to be accepted by a competent government. Since Brexit was put on the agenda so hastily and injudiciously, the Tory government can hardly be called that.

The purpose of the Brexit referendum was to save Cameron's arse from the UKIP. Well aware of what he did, Cameron opted for a quick and easy way out, so he won't be remembered when things go sour. But history never forgets.

[otokonomidori]

Originally Posted by Brecht

I suppose a lot of Scots who voted to remain in the UK in 2014 felt cheated after England decided for them in 2016.

Not England - it was the UK which decided.

It's worth also pointing out that a million Scots voted Leave in 2016 - the SNP like to pretend that everyone up here is a Remain supporter when actually a considerable number of their own voters supported leave

[Brecht]

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

Not England - it was the UK which decided.

It's worth also pointing out that a million Scots voted Leave in 2016 - the SNP like to pretend that everyone up here is a Remain supporter when actually a considerable number of their own voters supported leave

Let's make some population comparisons:

England: 55,619,400

Scotland: 5,424,800

Wales: 3,125,000

Northern Ireland: 1,876,695

There are 5+ times more people in England than Scotland, Wales and NI combined. In England 15,188,406 or 53.4% voted Leave while 13,266,996 or 46.6% voted Remain.

Do you understand that there are more Leave voters in England than Leave and Remain in the rest of the UK? They surpass Leave+Remain voters in Scotland, Wales and NI by 10 million votes!

If British nationalism, patriotism, exceptionalism, or whatever you prefer to call it, was the main driving force for those 15+ million in England to opt for Brexit, where is that British solidarity and understanding for the voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland?

Without trying to appear polemical, the impression an outsider might get from these facts is that some people expect Scotland, Northern Ireland, and everything that is of vital interest to them, to submit to English hegemony and dictate. Isn't this what Brussels is accused of by Brexiteers?

And certainly, there were SNP voters who supported or still support Brexit just like many people who support other parties. I don't see anything unusual about that.

[jacques22]

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

Actually the majority of Scots in 2014 voted on the assumption that leaving the UK would be a very bad move - Brexit didn't enter into it one way or another.

Let me give you the link for the Brexit referendum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit
Under pressure from many of his MPs and from the rise of UKIP, in January 2013, Cameron announced that a Conservative government would hold an in–out referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017, on a renegotiated package, if elected in 2015.

You see, as early as January 2013, Cameron promised a Brexit referendum. That's almost 2 years before the referendum on Scottish independence held in September 2014.
So don't say that EU membership was not on the Scottish electorate's mind, especially since EU membership was one the main issues discussed during the campaign. The SNP openly said they wanted an independent Scotland to become an EU member. And it was the fear that an independent Scotland would become a third country outside the EU that deterred some voters from backing 'Yes Scotland'.

Now the circumstances have changed since the Brexit referendum was held in June 2016, nearly 2 years after the referendum on Scottish independence. That's why Scotland should be morally entitled to have another referendum on independence. Especially since the Scottish government clearly wants to remain within the Single Market and the Customs Union.
Brexiters keep saying 'the will of the people' for 52% of the electorate voting 'leave,' but they suddenly have a problem with democracy when 62% of the Scots vote 'remain'. Don't they see the contradiction?

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

Many SNP supporters voted for Brexit in the 2016 referendum - thus ignoring the instructions of their MacFuhrer and proving to the world that they don't know theirs arse from a hole in the ground.

Lies, lies, and more lies.
From the People's Vote website: https://www.peoples-vote.uk/huge_sup...o_brexit_grows
The SNP’s current voters want to stay in the EU by a margin of 83 per cent to 17 per cent, while they back a People’s Vote on Brexit by a margin of more than four-to-one (66 per cent to 18 per cent).

At the national level, a recent YouGov poll shows that 66% of the Scots want to remain in the EU: https://www.peoples-vote.uk/huge_sup...o_brexit_grows
The People’s Vote campaign/You Gov poll of almost 2,000 people in Scotland - twice the normal size and the largest published survey of their views on Brexit – shows they would support staying in the European Union by a margin of 66 per cent to 34 per cent when “don’t knows” are removed – a significant swing since the referendum two years ago where Scottish voters split 62 per cent to 38 per cent for Remain over Leave.

Another poll conducted by Deltapoll shows that Brexit would completely change the outcome of a referendum on Scottish independence:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1LI0UK
The poll showed that if Britain leaves the EU as planned, 47 percent of Scots would vote for independence at another referendum on Scotland’s future. That compared to 43 percent who would vote against independence and 10 percent who did not know how they would vote.
If Britain remained inside the EU and a Scottish independence referendum were held, the poll showed opinions were reversed, with 43 percent backing Scottish independence under those circumstances, compared to 47 who were against it.

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

Nor should you distort the fact that the 2016 vote was a nationwide vote i.e. the UK. Scotland is bound by that as much as is London which didn't vote for Brexit either but I don't see them leaving the UK anytime soon.

Yeah, it's called a suicide pact. But Sturgeon and the SNP don't want to jump off the cliff edge. They know Scotland would be better off outside the UK and inside the EU:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...h-independence
An independent Scotland would nonetheless be a wealthy country: it currently has a higher per capita economic output than all regions of the UK except London and the South East.

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

It's worth keeping in mind that I actually live in Scotland and am perhaps more aware than you of the decline in support for the SNP, of their utter failure in government and of the fact that their support is a very noisy and unlettered minority.

You may live in Scotland, but you don't speak for the entire Scottish population. And for someone living in Scotland, there are many facts you seem to ignore (maybe deliberately). The SNP may be in decline but they have a more reliable majority in the Scottish parliament than the Tories at Westminster:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...h-independence
The only other pro-independence party in the Scottish Parliament is the Scottish Greens. Together with the SNP, these two parties hold 68 seats, a narrow majority for independence in the 129-seat legislature.

And the SNP's decline is relative since they had their best ever result in the 2011 Scottish election. So, even though the SNP lost a few seats in the 2016 election, they still have more than double the seats of the Conservatives. Just sayin'.

[otokonomidori]

Originally Posted by jacques22

You may live in Scotland, but you don't speak for the entire Scottish population.

No but I do perhaps have some sense of the shades of opinion up here rather than relying only on statistics which I've looked up somewhere.

BTW - Have you ever seen an SNP supporter in the wild?



Most Scots aren't like this which is why I reckon the SNP are ultimately doomed



The SNP lost 21 seats - not a "few"!! The last General Election was a disaster for them and they know it.

[bloke57]

Originally Posted by Brecht

Without trying to appear polemical, the impression an outsider might get from these facts is that some people expect Scotland, Northern Ireland, and everything that is of vital interest to them, to submit to English hegemony and dictate. Isn't this what Brussels is accused of by Brexiteers?

I agree. I'd just add that Wales voted leave too.

But I hope a outsider would also be generous enough to see that London and the South East of England, which is undeniably the economic power-house of Britain, voted to stay.

It is a very complex and divisive issue and we are trying to deal with it as amicably as possible within our nation. I'm sure that a few other nations in Europe would hate to be in this situation and that is why, sensibly, their governments have not even deigned to ask the populace.

So I would think that it is in everyone's interest for the EU to cut us a bit of slack and remember that nearly half of us are just as disappointed as they are.

[jacques22]

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

No but I do perhaps have some sense of the shades of opinion up here rather than relying only on statistics which I've looked up somewhere.

The problem with your shades of opinion is that they are based on lies. I only used stats and facts to counter your lies.

And those stats, as you call them, are real people.
The 2 million votes that the SNP won in the 2016 Scottish election (http://www.parliament.scot/ResearchB...ction_2016.pdf) are much more legitimate than your opinion.
The 2,000 Scottish people interviewed for the YouGov poll, saying that they want the UK to remain in the EU, are more legitimate than your opinion.
And the 1,000 Scottish people interviewed by Deltapoll, saying that they want Scottish independence if the UK leaves the EU, are again more legitimate than your opinion.

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

BTW - Have you ever seen an SNP supporter in the wild?



Most Scots aren't like this which is why I reckon the SNP are ultimately doomed.

Thanks for the caricature. I've been living in the UK for years. I meet Scots and Irish on a weekly basis. So far, Sturgeon and the SNP have been one of the few British parties being reasonable in those Brexit negotiations, while the DUP, UKIP and hard Brexiters like Johnson and Rees-Mogg have been the ones trying to tank the boat.

Every month, I see high-street shops (House of Fraser, Debenhams, Marks and Spencer, Mothercare, New Look, Poundworld, Prezzo, etc...) closing even though the UK is still an EU member. That breaks my heart because many Brexiters are acting like ostriches burying their heads in the sand, thinking Brexit will bring opportunities while it clearly won't.

Brexit has been such a mess. The British government is poorly defending the interests of the Scots and the Irish. That's why you have Scots who want independence if the UK leaves the EU. And now you have the Sinn Fein who want a referendum on Irish unity in the event of a hard Brexit, because they realise the British government and parliament don't care about preserving the Good Friday Agreement:
https://www.independent.ie/business/...-37424441.html

[Mal Hombre]

The SNP were formed to campaign for independence long before Brexit and Sinn Fein were originally the political wing of the IRA who fought a vicious thirty year terrorist war for Irish unity..

[scoundrel]

From a purely partisan "Remain" perspective, a lot of what the EU has done since the referendum has been counter-productive. They have got away with quite a bit because the half-baked and disunited British government has done as much as it possibly can to make Britain look foolish and inept. As a result, because it took nearly two years for the British side to produce a Brexit proposal, it is now two years and four months after the referendum and more than eighteen months since the Article 50 notice was given, and we are only now into the hard substance of what can and cant be agreed. I have to ask why in the fuck weren't we discussing substantive detailed proposals more than a year ago?

But without being too biased, I think I can fairly point out that the EU needed to reconsider a lot of its own moves beforehand. For example, the business of refusing to enter into any trade negotiation until the Northern Ireland border issue was "settled" caused a lot of time wasting and, as we see, the issue wasn't "settled" after all. I never understood why we were being asked to give guarantees about the border in the absence of a proposed framework for the future trade relationship. The two things are integral to one another, as we now see, and to expect "guarantees" and refuse to talk without them was paradoxical.

There's a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza;
There's a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, a hole.

Had the EU side avoided this unnecessary and futile delay, the absence of a plan on the British side could have been exposed much sooner and the British side would have been forced to create a plan, no matter how absurd. Had there not been a deadline looming in the autumn and a need to produce a proposal, Mrs May would still be kicking the can down the road and telling us that "Brexit means Brexit".

Then we had the needless slights and bad signals.

• The EU parliament chose Guy Verhofstadt to represent them in these discussions. This man is of course a total prick. The logic of choosing him can only be for the EU parliament to be intentionally disobliging; but as we British say, "One good turn deserves another."
• Mr Verhofstadt saw the visit of Mrs May to Poland as an opportunity to give the British side orders about what to do, what to say, and what to think. It was a useful reminder to many, on the Remain side as well, of why we British don't like the EU.
• We spent quite a while talking about the two year transition period - which may have been a case of booking tickets for the return voyage of the Titanic. But how we British laughed when the EU tried to write in a clause which would allow them to cancel the transition at any time during its agreed life, if they didn't like Britain's position in detailed implementation talks. They did agree to drop this particular demand - but once again it reminded the British side of the inherent character of the EU.
• The Gibraltar clause in the original EU position document is looking more and more like a moot point. But it was an extremely serious insult to my country. I will not lie. I would have told the EU to fuck off until they agreed to strike that clause from their position document. Gibraltar is a British territory and the Kingdom of Spain has nothing to say about how Gibraltar is run. We should have been adamant about that point
• The EU leaders can't seem to stop banging on about their desire for a European Army, greater integration, borders being a bad thing. The Federalist agenda is right up there with syphilis, leprosy and Gary Glitter in terms of popularity in the UK. It is the essence of why so many people in the UK decided to part company with the EU. But no one in the EU decision group seems to understand that at all.

If the EU strategy was or is to try to make the British people change their minds, then the tactics are wrong.