Current Politics in the United Kingdom - Page 367

**scoundrel** · July 8th, 2018, 11:23 AM

UKIP technically still exists and after all we are living in strange times, so I wouldn't be too quick to assume that they will never return.

What I suspect is that the talks will fail. Most of the reason for the failure will be divisions and incoherence in the British negotiating position caused by a political class which cannot agree and maintain a position. Underpinning this is the fact that most of our elected politicians at Westminster are Remainers and are unable to commit themselves to the exit talks properly; this includes the Prime Minister, who has taken until now to make the government's mind up over what it will seek from the talks anyway.

When (not if) the EU rejects key proposals made in the British plan, such as no jurisdiction for the ECJ in enforcing what after all are EU regulations in a "common customs territory", the fragile consensus of the Tory side will be tested and I think it will dissolve, meaning that the May government will either be paralysed and unable to revise its position or that it will fall. Either way, March 29th 2019 will arrive and we will not have come to an agreement or be anywhere near doing so.

Result: Hard Brexit - caused mainly by Remainer resistance to the process. Savour the irony in that.

**vinceprince** · July 8th, 2018, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scoundrel

UKIP technically still exists and after all we are living in strange times, so I wouldn't be too quick to assume that they will never return.

UKIP under Gerald Batten are so desperate for members and funds have been admitting alt-right and EDL supporters. Too toxic even for Farage apparently. Maybe Tommy Robinson will be the next leader if he's out of jail by then?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ght-into-party

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-right-stance

**scoundrel** · July 8th, 2018, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vinceprince

UKIP under Gerald Batten are so desperate for members and funds have been admitting alt-right and EDL supporters. Too toxic even for Farage apparently. Maybe Tommy Robinson will be the next leader if he's out of jail by then?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ght-into-party

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-right-stance

Nigel Farage was the original King Midas in Reverse and the discomfiture of UKIP now stems from his decision to walk away as soon as he thought he had got what he wanted. They don't have anyone of substance and they are in a rusty, weed covered siding in a derelict marshalling yard; but they aren't quite gone, not quite.

I am watching the slow unraveling of the May government with a certain dark amusement. It's a very serious position to be in, but if I said it isn't also ridiculous and funny that would just be a lie. All along, the EU referendum and the leaving process has been about internal Tory back-biting and power games, not about the country or its future. But one way or another Britain will leave the EU and there won't be any going back. In spite of all the ineptitude, the country is going to regain sovereignty; and I am not really worried about the common customs territory because it is not likely to happen, not in the real world.

Hopefully, there will be instead a practical agreement on tariff free and mutually beneficial trade terms, which may well include administrative arrangements to make sure all necessary EU (and British) compliance processes are efficient and effective. I expect some of this will evolve as the new relationship beds in. But what should not happen is that Britain will be an auxilliary member and dependent of the EU; which appears to be Mrs May's vision for the future relationship.

**vinceprince** · July 8th, 2018, 01:23 PM

Keir Starmer says Labour will not back May's Exit Plan in Parliament. Likely Lib Dems and SNP will also reject it.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8437081.html

So if a few Tory Hard Brexiteers also vote against it, it will fail. The stalemate could lead to a General Election or a 2nd Referendum.

**scoundrel** · July 8th, 2018, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vinceprince

Keir Starmer says Labour will not back May's Exit Plan in Parliament. Likely Lib Dems and SNP will also reject it.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8437081.html

So if a few Tory Hard Brexiteers also vote against it, it will fail. The stalemate could lead to a General Election or a 2nd Referendum.

An election would be a preferable outcome. I have seen nothing in the last 3 years to persuade me that referendums are a good way to run the show. Of course, Mrs May may confuse the issue by trying to bringing back foxhunting, and going for the dementia tax again, and maybe trying to abolish free school meals into the bargain.

**otokonomidori** · July 8th, 2018, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scoundrel

and maybe trying to abolish free school meals into the bargain.

That's got my vote !

**scoundrel** · July 8th, 2018, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

That's got my vote !

Why am I not surprised?

**bloke57** · July 8th, 2018, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

That's got my vote !

What?! No deep fried Mars bars for lunch?

**haroldeye** · July 8th, 2018, 05:46 PM

May said Back her plan or she will resign. No need because if she uses the plan as reported she is toast. At a time when we need strong leadership we have that sad streak of ordure.

**old alal** · July 9th, 2018, 07:34 AM

David Davies resignation. Good man.

July 8th, 2018, 11:23 AM	#3661
scoundrel Super Moderator Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: England Posts: 26,238 Thanks: 162,399 Thanked 278,496 Times in 26,183 Posts	UKIP technically still exists and after all we are living in strange times, so I wouldn't be too quick to assume that they will never return. What I suspect is that the talks will fail. Most of the reason for the failure will be divisions and incoherence in the British negotiating position caused by a political class which cannot agree and maintain a position. Underpinning this is the fact that most of our elected politicians at Westminster are Remainers and are unable to commit themselves to the exit talks properly; this includes the Prime Minister, who has taken until now to make the government's mind up over what it will seek from the talks anyway. When (not if) the EU rejects key proposals made in the British plan, such as no jurisdiction for the ECJ in enforcing what after all are EU regulations in a "common customs territory", the fragile consensus of the Tory side will be tested and I think it will dissolve, meaning that the May government will either be paralysed and unable to revise its position or that it will fall. Either way, March 29th 2019 will arrive and we will not have come to an agreement or be anywhere near doing so. Result: Hard Brexit - caused mainly by Remainer resistance to the process. Savour the irony in that. __________________ To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 0 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

July 9th, 2018, 07:34 AM	#3670
old alal Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: UK Posts: 3,197 Thanks: 22,904 Thanked 35,082 Times in 3,165 Posts	David Davies resignation. Good man. __________________ Old alal's First Rule Of Breasts To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 0 or greater. You currently have 0 posts. When you've seen one pair of breasts.........you want to see every pair of breasts!

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July 8th, 2018, 01:23 PM	#3664
vinceprince 13th Duke of Wybourne Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Me, Here? In a sixth-form girl's dormitory? At 3 in the morning? With my reputation? Posts: 2,089 Thanks: 8,082 Thanked 21,964 Times in 2,076 Posts	Keir Starmer says Labour will not back May's Exit Plan in Parliament. Likely Lib Dems and SNP will also reject it. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8437081.html So if a few Tory Hard Brexiteers also vote against it, it will fail. The stalemate could lead to a General Election or a 2nd Referendum.

July 8th, 2018, 05:46 PM	#3669
haroldeye Moderator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Halfwitistan Posts: 5,715 Thanks: 113,498 Thanked 59,965 Times in 5,707 Posts	May said Back her plan or she will resign. No need because if she uses the plan as reported she is toast. At a time when we need strong leadership we have that sad streak of ordure.