Questions For Our Russian Friends

[Roubignol]

@Roger,

Not only US.
As example, China is the only country in the world that bought all the nuclear plants technologies made on this planet.
Another fact, after a study, 50% of the Chinese parents interviewed have declared they would be ready to put a microprocessor in the brain of their children to improve their intelligence, when only 14% of the French parents have answered that they would agree with that.

I hope to be dead before to be run by a Chinese cyborg.

Originally Posted by Rogerbh

I was going to end this post with the quote from Marx about how the Capitalists will sell us the rope to hang them, but it seems attribution is questionable. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2018/02/22/rope/

It was not Marx, but Lenine.

[Rogerbh]

If only the world would join hands, form a circle and sing "Kumbaya" and peace and love will fill the skies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo9AH4vG2wA

The thought that smaller powers will give up their nuclear weapons when they have the belief that those nukes are the only insurance they have that a bigger country won't run over them is rather unrealistic. For example Russia's military will soon be surpassed by China's in a few decades. http://armedforces.eu/compare/country_Russia_vs_China

Would Russia give up its tactical nukes - ? No way in hell.

Instead of arguing for nuclear disarmament, it would be more practical for all of us to sing "Aquarius." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjxSCAalsBE

Some hippy girls might show us their tits.

[bowlinggreen]

Originally Posted by deepsepia

China won't "pursue lebensraum". That's not how they do things. They're financing projects throughout central Asia -- that's Xi's celebrated "Belt and Road" project. With the Chinese projects comes Chinese influence and Chinese population.

The Chinese won't seize Siberia with tanks. One day sometime in the next century, there will more Chinese in Siberia than Russians. And the businesses will be owned by Chinese. And whoever sits on Putin's throne will be financed by Chinese too . . .



This vastly underestimates the speed of China's military improvement, and their skill. Think of it this way: Russia has essentially no civilian technologies of importance. No semiconductors, no software, no manufacturing exports beyond some military items.

China has a massive industrial and technical base, and growing more sophisticated every day.

There's likely nothing in your home that's "made in Russia". You've never driven a car with a Russian part, never taken a pill manufactured in Leningrad. You're doing all these things today and every day with goods made in China.

A couple of good points, but:

Even with Chinese creeping into Siberia, they will not have sovereignty there. The will still be expected to pay tribute and homage to the Russian oligarchy, or whoever is running things then. When they get the idea that they don't have to, military conflict will occur.

Russia is always hellbent on protecting territory with strategic value. They waited years and years to get the Crimea back after the USSR fell, and in the end they took it.

In the matter of Chinese "sophistication", quality standards are being imposed upon them by their customers, i.e. us, who are still often disappointed by what they send us in spite of their best efforts.

Left to themselves, the Chinese have had this tendency to produce rickety shaky stuff in their various endeavors. Remember Mao's backyard iron furnace initiative? I suspect this is one reason why the Japanese have always had such contempt for them - THEY do not build and manufacture that way.

And in the matter of economies, Russia may not be much on the domestic front, but they are the second largest arms exporter in the world, lagging only behind the USA. When you've got that sort of economy, you don't worry so much about your neighbor's increasing ability to manufacture cell phones and washing machines.

Originally Posted by xyzde69

Remembering your comments on an American topic, it seems to me that you still believe in nuclear weapons.

I read this book written in 2012

Demand ! A total nuclear disarmament

Believe in nuclear weapons? Of course I do. They are real. Unlike flying saucers.

If you think nuclear weapons will not be used again, and be the decisive factor in some future conflict, you are deluding yourself.

The world has been holding its breath on the issue since 1945, which is long enough for some people to get giddy in the head and convince themselves that no one will ever pop off a nuke again. But they are dead wrong. You have only to wait awhile.

[Arturo2nd]

Originally Posted by bowlinggreen

Even with Chinese creeping into Siberia, they will not have sovereignty there. The will still be expected to pay tribute and homage to the Russian oligarchy, or whoever is running things then. When they get the idea that they don't have to, military conflict will occur.

Russia is always hellbent on protecting territory with strategic value. They waited years and years to get the Crimea back after the USSR fell, and in the end they took it.

Much of the eastern part of what is now Russia was part of Imperial China before Russian expansion. China has made it quite clear that they regard all territory (and then some) claimed by Imperial China to be part of the PRC. They are prepared to wait years to get it back. Russia should be quite happy that the United States is so powerful right now. As the U.S. power abates, tensions between China and Russia must increase.

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by bowlinggreen

Left to themselves, the Chinese have had this tendency to produce rickety shaky stuff in their various endeavors. Remember Mao's backyard iron furnace initiative? I suspect this is one reason why the Japanese have always had such contempt for them - THEY do not build and manufacture that way.

This is not Mao's China. Mao's China was a desperately poor Marxist collectivist nightmare-- quite similar to North Korea today.

Forty years ago, China chose a different path-- today, they're far more like the South Korea of General Park Chung Hye than they are like Mao's China.

I'm old enough that I remember people saying "cheap Japanese knock offs" and laughing when Honda said they were going to build a car. I remember sneering at Japanese cameras, etc . . . now you pay a premium for them. I just bought a camera lens made -- and designed-- in China the other day. Lots of lenses have been made in China for a long time, but for the first time that I've seen, there are genuinely innovative Chinese manufacturers (this was a Laowa)

The Russians now regularly stage wargames to think about conflict with China "Vostok" (East) wargames are now as frequent as the Zapad (East) games . . .China has big investment in new technologies, in artificial intelligence to control drone swarms, for example.

Russia is a middling power with a GDP that's roughly equal to the Netherlands and Belgium.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by bowlinggreen

In the matter of Chinese "sophistication", quality standards are being imposed upon them by their customers, i.e. us, who are still often disappointed by what they send us in spite of their best efforts.

Left to themselves, the Chinese have had this tendency to produce rickety shaky stuff in their various endeavors. Remember Mao's backyard iron furnace initiative? I suspect this is one reason why the Japanese have always had such contempt for them - THEY do not build and manufacture that way.

And in the matter of economies, Russia may not be much on the domestic front, but they are the second largest arms exporter in the world, lagging only behind the USA. When you've got that sort of economy, you don't worry so much about your neighbor's increasing ability to manufacture cell phones and washing machines.

I wouldn't advise anyone to complacent about what China cannot achieve. Think for example of the superb quality of their ceramics, centuries ago, when Europeans could barely make glass. Remember that the Chinese were the first society to make explosives. The Chinese discovered how to use silk for cloth and other purposes.

Today, China is in the early stages of a huge industrial step-change. The comparison with Japan in the late 1950s, when Soichiro Honda was just beginning to make viable motorcycles for the world market (the Honda C90, a classic) is sound. The Chinese are not yet a major force in motorcycles outside China, but they make millions of the things for their own market and I assure you they have huge potential, once they get their act together on quality and on customer service - and they will.

China has ambition and energy and focus. She is the coming super-power in world economics. Russia has an awful lot of potential if she ever decided to follow this particular path; in terms of technical knowhow and skills base Russia is impressive. Think of shit like floating nuclear power stations you can locate anywhere where there is deep enough water, and we can see Russia is not a backward or technically incapable place. She lacks the confidence and motivation of the Chinese and is far too inclined to sulk and look backwards. If she looked forwards as the Chinese are presently doing, she could easily double her per-capita gross domestic product in a matter of 10-15 years, based on today's value of money.

Question.

Given Russia's enormous natural resources and human talent, and an education system which does a damn sight better than that of many western societies, then why is Russia not far more prosperous and successful? She easily could be.

[bowlinggreen]

Originally Posted by Brian249x

Much of the eastern part of what is now Russia was part of Imperial China before Russian expansion. China has made it quite clear that they regard all territory (and then some) claimed by Imperial China to be part of the PRC. They are prepared to wait years to get it back. Russia should be quite happy that the United States is so powerful right now. As the U.S. power abates, tensions between China and Russia must increase.

I wouldn't say "much", but there is a chunk.

Russia will have to fall considerably further before China can step in there.

And I don't know what OUR reaction would be - we might just giggle as territory changes hands from Russia to the Chinese. We have always valued good relations with China more so than with Russia, since we have had Pacific trade in that region stretching back quite a ways.

One thing I DO foresee is China becoming more prominent in central Asia, in the various 'stans formerly controlled by the USSR. They have already taken steps to bring back the "Silk Road", so to speak, and I think they intend on forging a network of alliances that stretch all the way to the Middle East along land routes. This will help them immeasurably in their quest for petroleum resources.

Originally Posted by deepsepia

This is not Mao's China. Mao's China was a desperately poor Marxist collectivist nightmare-- quite similar to North Korea today.

Forty years ago, China chose a different path-- today, they're far more like the South Korea of General Park Chung Hye than they are like Mao's China.

I'm old enough that I remember people saying "cheap Japanese knock offs" and laughing when Honda said they were going to build a car. I remember sneering at Japanese cameras, etc . . . now you pay a premium for them. I just bought a camera lens made -- and designed-- in China the other day. Lots of lenses have been made in China for a long time, but for the first time that I've seen, there are genuinely innovative Chinese manufacturers (this was a Laowa)

The Russians now regularly stage wargames to think about conflict with China "Vostok" (East) wargames are now as frequent as the Zapad (East) games . . .China has big investment in new technologies, in artificial intelligence to control drone swarms, for example.

It may not be Mao's China, but it is still a Communist China. I don't see them rising to technological supremacy like Japan did. Don't forget, Japan was ALREADY a major industrial power when we crushed them in WWII, and could build formidable military machines. It took them from 1868 to 1941 to go from essentially a medieval Shogunate to a major military power that was ready and willing, if not ultimately able, to take on the major western powers.

During that same period, China was backwards and basically helpless.

China has been strong before, but they have this historical habit of revving up for awhile and them rapidly descending back into a state of quiescence.

Originally Posted by deepsepia

Russia is a middling power with a GDP that's roughly equal to the Netherlands and Belgium.

And 7000 nuclear weapons, and the means to deliver them. Something no other "middling" state has.

Originally Posted by scoundrel

Question.

Given Russia's enormous natural resources and human talent, and an education system which does a damn sight better than that of many western societies, then why is Russia not far more prosperous and successful? She easily could be.

This is an interesting question. From a western point of view, we could say they are burdened by history, but that may simply be foreign misconception on our part. Perhaps palo5 could shed some more light on this interesting topic.

From where we sit in the west, there is no apparent reason why Russia should not have a population of 200+ million right now and a GDP to rival that of the United States. But it doesn't.

[deepsepia]

Originally Posted by bowlinggreen

It may not be Mao's China, but it is still a Communist China.

It is communist only in that the Communist Party rules. It is not "Communist" in economic organization-- its a market economy, generating astonishing growth and dramatic increases in technical sophistication.

Originally Posted by bowlinggreen

I don't see them rising to technological supremacy like Japan did. Don't forget, Japan was ALREADY a major industrial power when we crushed them in WWII, and could build formidable military machines. It took them from 1868 to 1941 to go from essentially a medieval Shogunate to a major military power that was ready and willing, if not ultimately able, to take on the major western powers.

Nope, you're missing just how fast Asian nations have developed technology, and also missing some history: Japan defeats Russia in the Russo-Japanese War, 1905-- that's a mere 40 years after the end of the Shogunate. China is now 40 years past Mao, and the downfall of the Gang of Four.

They're building aircraft carriers, domestically, today -- very few nations in the world can do this.

Originally Posted by bowlinggreen

And 7000 nuclear weapons, and the means to deliver them. Something no other "middling" state has.

With those 7000 warheads, they _lost_ a war in Afghanistan, one of the most ass backward nations on the planet, just as we're losing the same war to the same people today.

Nuclear weapons didn't prevent the Soviet Union from collapsing.

There's nothing that China wants from Russia that they'll have to do anything so crude as seize militarily. They'll just buy it.

Originally Posted by bowlinggreen

From where we sit in the west, there is no apparent reason why Russia should not have a population of 200+ million right now and a GDP to rival that of the United States. But it doesn't.

Well they _don't_ have a population of 200 million. Their population is 144 million, and its been falling for decades. The current birth rate: 11.5 per 1000; current death rate is 12.4 per 1000 . . . that's the "apparent reason" why Russia will see 130 million before it sees 200 million.

[Mr 1980s]

This question isn't as deep as some that have already been asked but, I just saw this on YT. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHtszlcRSPI - Are there any other bands on that I should know about?

i already know about TaTu, and while communist lesbian schoolgirls is a cute thing, it's not my preferred genre. :P

[bowlinggreen]

Originally Posted by deepsepia

It is communist only in that the Communist Party rules. It is not "Communist" in economic organization-- its a market economy, generating astonishing growth and dramatic increases in technical sophistication.

First, how long can that growth be sustained? And at what cost? We've all seen the huge smogs of pollution hanging over Chinese cities.

Second, China is not a free market democracy. it has an "Emperor", i.e. President for Life Xi.

And it will only take one bad emperor making bad decisions to really drag the Chinese "miracle" down in the future.

Originally Posted by deepsepia

Nope, you're missing just how fast Asian nations have developed technology, and also missing some history: Japan defeats Russia in the Russo-Japanese War, 1905-- that's a mere 40 years after the end of the Shogunate. China is now 40 years past Mao, and the downfall of the Gang of Four.

They're building aircraft carriers, domestically, today -- very few nations in the world can do this.

I haven't missed anything - both Japan and S. Korea have been ahead of the curve vs. the Chinese.

And just how good are those aircraft carriers? And warplanes, and tanks? I doubt they are as good as ours.

They'll be good enough to take on some other regional powers. Which brings up another point. China is surrounded by people who really don't like them - Japan to the east, Russia to the north, India to the south.

Germany had the same problem and superpower ambitions as well, and it didn't work out too well for them.

Originally Posted by deepsepia

With those 7000 warheads, they _lost_ a war in Afghanistan, one of the most ass backward nations on the planet, just as we're losing the same war to the same people today.

They weren't going to nuke anything in Afghanistan for the same reason we never nuked anything in Vietnam - who wants to start Armageddon over some crappy piece of potential vassal territory?

But if their backs were really to the wall, they would launch on the Chinese.

Originally Posted by deepsepia

Well they _don't_ have a population of 200 million. Their population is 144 million, and its been falling for decades. The current birth rate: 11.5 per 1000; current death rate is 12.4 per 1000 . . . that's the "apparent reason" why Russia will see 130 million before it sees 200 million.

Yes, and my point was... why?