Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[frankoboff]

Originally Posted by palo5

Good question. But it's probably better for the British if they follow that strategy -- just leave out food and anything to do with health, no matter what pressure they get

I must say, I think their farmers will be screwed, almost whatever happens. Very bad news for a country that can't feed itself. Do any of their bright lights have an answer to this, apart from "zero tariffs" which is something only an imbecile could say?

Don't think we have much of a choice.

There's a health crisis due over the next 10 years and the Tories don't want to pay for it through progressive taxation so it'll be down to the private sector- US Big Pharma basically.

Zero tariffs, minimal taxation is the only way they'll get leaving the EU to work without a decent EU trade deal- The UK becoming Europe's offshore Singapore is the current government's dream scenario.

[Wendigo]

Never fear Jezzer is on the case

Jeremy Corbyn: General election will stop Brexit 'crisis'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49391297

Sadly Jeremy (I desperately want to be PM) Corbyn has only one answer to any question .... call an election



"A general election triggered by the Tory Brexit crisis will be a crossroads for our country. It will be a once-in-a-generation chance for a real change of direction, potentially on the scale of 1945," he said.

I wonder if Jezzer even sees the obvious irony in that statement

[haunted]

Boris Johnson has set out his policies re Brexit to the EU
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49411786

[BondJmsBond]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Czl1MMFUvD4

[palo5]

As always, Merkel was diplomatic and not adversarial. Johnson appeared to start adversarial but end up a lamb

He said the EU had "ample scope" to change the withdrawal agreement and remove the backstop in favor of "alternative arrangements". She said ok, maybe we will find arrangements, maybe in the next 30 days

Johnson fell for it. He knows he has no alternative arrangements to offer, but accepted he only has 30 days to find them

I must note that Johnson is intellectually inferior to Merkel. She has a PhD in physics from a demanding environment. He only has a BA in something irrelevant from a not so demanding environment (not in that subject, anyway)

[frankoboff]

Originally Posted by palo5

As always, Merkel was diplomatic and not adversarial. Johnson appeared to start adversarial but end up a lamb

He said the EU had "ample scope" to change the withdrawal agreement and remove the backstop in favor of "alternative arrangements". She said ok, maybe we will find arrangements, maybe in the next 30 days

Johnson fell for it. He knows he has no alternative arrangements to offer, but accepted he only has 30 days to find them

I must note that Johnson is intellectually inferior to Merkel. She has a PhD in physics from a demanding environment. He only has a BA in something irrelevant from a not so demanding environment (not in that subject, anyway)

As much as I hate Johnson it's likely the reverse of what you say is true. It's good diplomacy to come out in personal support of foreign leaders and the 30 days is meaningless to the EU. 31/10/19 is still 31/10/19.

The 30 days gives Johnson extra time to avoid a no confidence vote when parliament comes back from summer recess- it's a new narrative to feed the right wing press that'll buy him time at home.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by palo5

As always, Merkel was diplomatic and not adversarial. Johnson appeared to start adversarial but end up a lamb

He said the EU had "ample scope" to change the withdrawal agreement and remove the backstop in favor of "alternative arrangements". She said ok, maybe we will find arrangements, maybe in the next 30 days

Johnson fell for it. He knows he has no alternative arrangements to offer, but accepted he only has 30 days to find them

I must note that Johnson is intellectually inferior to Merkel. She has a PhD in physics from a demanding environment. He only has a BA in something irrelevant from a not so demanding environment (not in that subject, anyway)

It doesn't pay to underestimate people even when you dislike them. I think this is a game, but I am not exactly sure what prizes Mr Johnson and Frau Merkel are playing to win.

I do not for a moment believe that the EU is going to merely withdraw its demand that Britain accept the Backstop. The time for Britain to refuse to accept that was in 2017 when the demand was originally made, and Theresa May didn't have the strength of purpose to say that she would not discuss this demand or consider it. Now, it is Britain which is rowing back on something the EU side was entitled to think Britain had agreed to.

But on the other hand, if Britain leaves with no deal in place, Ireland will be worse off than she would be with a deal. The Irish border is very likely to be closed on the Irish side under orders from the EU, which will a much bigger problem for Ireland than for Britain, but will benefit neither side. The British opposition to the Backstop is correct - it is against British self determination because Britain can be forced to be in a permanent state of subservience to the EU. There is no exit mechanism except by kind permission of the EU, and no reason why the EU would give its permission. Mrs May was quite wrong to even consider this condition, let alone agree to it.

Mr Johnson talks like a competitor in the Upper Class Twit of the Year Competition; but he is right to make clear that the Backstop is not going to pass Parliament in its current form and that he will take Britain out of the EU regardless of whether or not the EU agrees to change it. He should not make such public parades of his intransigence - that is not diplomatic. But Britain should have left the EU on 29 March last and I can see no benefit in prolonging this nonsense unless Britain and the EU really do have something to talk about and really do need time to talk.

Is Mr Johnson less intelligent than Frau Merkel? No doubt she is academically very smart, but I remember her actions in 2014-15 during the human migration and I am bound to say that she was not clever. She had the brains of a rocking horse. Maybe she and Boris are more alike than might seem.

[palo5]

Originally Posted by frankoboff

As much as I hate Johnson it's likely the reverse of what you say is true. It's good diplomacy to come out in personal support of foreign leaders and the 30 days is meaningless to the EU. 31/10/19 is still 31/10/19.

The 30 days gives Johnson extra time to avoid a no confidence vote when parliament comes back from summer recess- it's a new narrative to feed the right wing press that'll buy him time at home.

Johnson is no diplomat, we know that. The only question is whether he can survive a no-confidence vote and a GE before October 31

Merkel didn't actually give him 30 days. She was piss-taking. She knows Johnson has no alternative solutions. So for Johnson, nothing has changed. The EU is patient but he can't change their position without changing his own. His problems are in the English parliament, and what Merkel said won't help him

[palo5]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

Is Mr Johnson less intelligent than Frau Merkel? No doubt she is academically very smart, but I remember her actions in 2014-15 during the human migration and I am bound to say that she was not clever. She had the brains of a rocking horse. Maybe she and Boris are more alike than might seem.

You have a different view of migration. Merkel knows the numbers and knows she needs more people. She took a risk, but a lot of people must have backed her. And she was putting country before party

Merkel knows details and understands them. She masters her brief. Johnson is the opposite. He's like Trump, a narcisstic showman, who understands little but knows how to excite gullible people

[frankoboff]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

It doesn't pay to underestimate people even when you dislike them. I think this is a game, but I am not exactly sure what prizes Mr Johnson and Frau Merkel are playing to win.

I do not for a moment believe that the EU is going to merely withdraw its demand that Britain accept the Backstop. The time for Britain to refuse to accept that was in 2017 when the demand was originally made, and Theresa May didn't have the strength of purpose to say that she would not discuss this demand or consider it. Now, it is Britain which is rowing back on something the EU side was entitled to think Britain had agreed to.

But on the other hand, if Britain leaves with no deal in place, Ireland will be worse off than she would be with a deal. The Irish border is very likely to be closed on the Irish side under orders from the EU, which will a much bigger problem for Ireland than for Britain, but will benefit neither side. The British opposition to the Backstop is correct - it is against British self determination because Britain can be forced to be in a permanent state of subservience to the EU. There is no exit mechanism except by kind permission of the EU, and no reason why the EU would give its permission. Mrs May was quite wrong to even consider this condition, let alone agree to it.

Mr Johnson talks like a competitor in the Upper Class Twit of the Year Competition; but he is right to make clear that the Backstop is not going to pass Parliament in its current form and that he will take Britain out of the EU regardless of whether or not the EU agrees to change it. He should not make such public parades of his intransigence - that is not diplomatic. But Britain should have left the EU on 29 March last and I can see no benefit in prolonging this nonsense unless Britain and the EU really do have something to talk about and really do need time to talk.

Is Mr Johnson less intelligent than Frau Merkel? No doubt she is academically very smart, but I remember her actions in 2014-15 during the human migration and I am bound to say that she was not clever. She had the brains of a rocking horse. Maybe she and Boris are more alike than might seem.

It's just diplomacy. Neither Merkel nor Macron have a say, it's down to the EU as a collective not individual heads of state.

The backstop is a temporary measure. The only people that seem against it other than those who want to remain and Hard Brexiteers. As I mentioned in as prior comment, this is more about using a hard Brexit situation to force an ideological project on the UK than it is about the backstop per se. If they really believed in the unflinching will of the people then smoothing out the economic and political transition seems sensible to me. If they're trying to rush it through because they worry the majority have changed their minds then the don't actually respect the will of the people at all.

I'll stick by what I said about Brexit being more about politics at home than it is about Europe. People are either using it to further their careers or bring about some kind of regime change. The latter applies to Corbyn as much as it does Rees-Mogg.

Ireland will be fine, it'll still be in the EU.