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Old 05-16-2018, 09:12 PM   #1701
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For a long time the USA has held the position of political leadership of western and culturally westernised nations. But gradually this leadership position has been weakened. With the Iran decision I think a tipping point is very close.

First of all, Mr Trump has reneged on a signed treaty. This isn't the first time either - for example his repudiation of environmental agreements. Now, where I come from, if your given word is no good, this means you yourself are no good. Under Mr Trump, America's given word is no good and this means her usual partners, Britain included, have to wonder whether America is any good any more. Can America's business partners continue to act in concert with America if President Y is going to renege on agreements signed by former president X? Is America capable of honouring her commitments? Under President Trump I think the answer has to be "No" - his word is no good. If you think this is not extremely serious stuff, learn the history of Britain starting from the 1938 Munich agreement and ask yourself how Britain came to be so isolated and unsupported when fighting Hitler, one of the most loathsome enemies the free world has ever had. It is because Britain completely alienated many potential allies and friends by selling Czechoslovakia down the river. You see, if your word is no good, this means that you yourself are no good.

Think about it. Seriously, think hard.

Secondly, Mr Trump is driving without due care and attention. His new Secretary of State found out about the Iran decision on twitter. Now that the decision has been made (on twitter yet) the American government is trying to come up with a plan for what to do next. Having ignored Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China, Mr Trump's administration wants to be assisted by these countries in arriving at a new strategy. I am far from sure that any help will be given. In particular, unless there is constructive engagement both with the existing nuclear treaty partners and with Iran herself, I think any attempt by the USA under Mr Trump to reimpose a sanctions regime on Iran risks an extremely serious breakdown in relations with Germany, France and Britain, all of whom remain committed to the Iranian agreement. America is not so powerful that she can merely dictate to the rest of the world and this president is alienating America's long term friendships by acting arrogantly and disrespectfully towards America's friends.

Thirdly, if Mr Trump has a joined up strategy, he has not made clear what this might be. As far as I can tell he makes emotional decisions without listening to advice. The only consistent theme appears to be a restless urge to trash the legacy of his predecessor. Whenever he opposes something, Mr Trump seems to need to blame Mr Obama, as for example when he decided at the last minute not to open the new US embassy in London and cited his scorn for a bad deal made by Mr Obama as this grounds for this sudden announcement - the deal was made by Mr George W Bush incidentally. You would expect a businessman to make rational decisions, but Mr Trump does not make rational decisions and does not follow stable policy goals. This will mean that America loses influence and "soft power" as her usual allies will stay apart, rather as we cross the road to avoid people who walk along talking to themselves and exhibiting symptoms of mental illness.

The Iran decision leaves the USA totally devoid of credibility and this creates a dangerous vacuum where leadership is concerned. The only obvious alternative suppliers of leadership are Russia and China. This is because no one can be expected to act in concert with a country which continues to renege on agreements.

These are bitter things to say and I regret the need to say them very much indeed.
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Old 05-16-2018, 09:24 PM   #1702
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Originally Posted by scoundrel View Post
For a long time the USA has held the position of political leadership of western and culturally westernised nations. But gradually this leadership position has been weakened. With the Iran decision I think a tipping point is very close.

First of all, Mr Trump has reneged on a signed treaty. This isn't the first time either - for example his repudiation of environmental agreements. Now, where I come from, if your given word is no good, this means you yourself are no good. Under Mr Trump, America's given word is no good and this means her usual partners, Britain included, have to wonder whether America is any good any more. Can America's business partners continue to act in concert with America if President Y is going to renege on agreements signed by former president X? Is America capable of honouring her commitments? Under President Trump I think the answer has to be "No" - his word is no good.
Mr. Trump has consistently broken contracts throughout his business career. IMO, this has been a major factor in his accumulation of wealth. As long as Mr. Trump is in charge, I cannot see the wisdom of making any new agreements with the United States. Our congressional leaders have found themselves repeatedly stymied when Mr. Trump immediately denounces deals after negotiating them.

I have just posted more on Iran and trade here.

http://vintage-erotica-forum.com/sho...postcount=3073
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Old 05-16-2018, 09:47 PM   #1703
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Originally Posted by Brian249x View Post
Mr. Trump has consistently broken contracts throughout his business career. IMO, this has been a major factor in his accumulation of wealth. As long as Mr. Trump is in charge, I cannot see the wisdom of making any new agreements with the United States. Our congressional leaders have found themselves repeatedly stymied when Mr. Trump immediately denounces deals after negotiating them.

I have just posted more on Iran and trade here.

http://vintage-erotica-forum.com/sho...postcount=3073
It's worse than that. You see, Mr Trump feels able to go back on deals struck by his predecessor. If he can do that, it follows that other presidents can and will do that. That will mean that future presidents will be prevented from making treaty agreements simply because no one will feel able to rely on the treaty when there is a subsequent change of presidents.

This is what I mean when I say that if your word is no good, it follows that you yourself are no good. Mr Trump is poisoning the well.
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Old 05-16-2018, 10:02 PM   #1704
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Originally Posted by scoundrel View Post
It's worse than that. You see, Mr Trump feels able to go back on deals struck by his predecessor. If he can do that, it follows that other presidents can and will do that. That will mean that future presidents will be prevented from making treaty agreements simply because no one will feel able to rely on the treaty when there is a subsequent change of presidents.

This is what I mean when I say that if your word is no good, it follows that you yourself are no good. Mr Trump is poisoning the well.
I understand. Please understand that Mr. Trump is an inveterate and compulsive liar utterly lacking in scruples or decency. Few men discuss sexing up their daughters while accompanying them to a radio interview. Hopefully, he is repudiated quickly, we are able to repair the damage, and the world understands that we had a moment of madness. I don't believe that we expect Ms. Merkle to open death camps, but Erdogan, Putin, and Xi should understand that their predecessors' legacies can make us skittish at times.

However, if one were to go by the United States dealings with the indigenous tribes, we should be kept on a short leash.
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Old 05-16-2018, 10:49 PM   #1705
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Having read scounds post, and Brian's comments, there is little in either that I disagree with, however what Trump fails to understand is that those of us on the ground, the people in the real world, who have to deal with the fall out of his words and actions, find ourselves in a more and more difficult position.

The build up, and now the action over the Iran deal has put us in a very difficult position, we are being openly told now that our word is meaningless, as the Americans will block anything we come up with. In the Arab world this is absolute confirmation of the hatred held against the Arab nations by America, it confirms absolutely that America can never be trusted in any dealings with any Arab nation, but it has also caused other Western nations to step back and rethink many agreements they have with America. The biggest single concern is how safe is NATO?
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:03 AM   #1706
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First I am not sure just who WE are that could close it.
Second no closure just a simple modding.
Seems you havenīt got the irony in my statement...donīt worry, I wonīt disturb the "holy grails of modding"

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"I Like Trump"...
That doesnīt surprise me
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Old 05-17-2018, 04:29 PM   #1707
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Originally Posted by rupertramjet View Post
... (W)hat Trump fails to understand is that those of us on the ground, the people in the real world, who have to deal with the fall out of his words and actions, find ourselves in a more and more difficult position.

The build up, and now the action over the Iran deal has put us in a very difficult position, we are being openly told now that our word is meaningless, as the Americans will block anything we come up with. In the Arab world this is absolute confirmation of the hatred held against the Arab nations by America, it confirms absolutely that America can never be trusted in any dealings with any Arab nation, but it has also caused other Western nations to step back and rethink many agreements they have with America. The biggest single concern is how safe is NATO?
Trump doesn't understand a lot of things about the world and other cultures. I am pretty sure that he doesn't give a damn about how many people are harmed by his actions.

I am not at all sure that I would trust any Arab nation too much or any nation completely. My experience of Arab nations is that they admire and respect treachery and double dealing. Israel exists because the Arab nations have been unable to mount united action. They can never resist the temptation to backstab each other. They have never trusted us, because they are always looking to beguile and deceive. That does not mean that our government is reliable and trustworthy. The very nature of our political system means that our policy shifts every eight years.

But Trump clearly has a foreign policy driven by ADHD, delusion, and ignorance. Other nations must be totally bewildered by now. No rational leader could believe that any deal made while he is president will be honored.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:04 PM   #1708
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I am not at all sure that I would trust any Arab nation too much or any nation completely. My experience of Arab nations is that they admire and respect treachery and double dealing. Israel exists because the Arab nations have been unable to mount united action. They can never resist the temptation to backstab each other. They have never trusted us, because they are always looking to beguile and deceive. That does not mean that our government is reliable and trustworthy. The very nature of our political system means that our policy shifts every eight years..
Sadly that is the perception in the West, the Arab World becomes complicated because of the different sects of Islam, similar to the many wars of the middle ages between Catholic and Protestant, one of the cited causes of the troubles in Northern Ireland.

The largest sect is Sunni, with an estimated 1.39 Billion followers, next is Shi'a with 200 million, the two lesser sects Lbadi and Sufism, are the minor sects with about three million between them, although that is disputed. The complications come in when you have different countries with different controlling sects. This is what is often the root cause of distrust and enmity in The Middle East.

Iran is a Shi'a country, most of the rest are Sunni, many of the regime in Syria are Shi'a, which is why Iran is supporting them. During the first Gulf War, Saudi Arabia went to war in Kuwait's defence, there was no back stabbing there, the six day war, almost spelt the end of Israel, again no back stabbing, but better fighting ability, weapons, leadership and most importantly Israel knew it was a fight to the death, had they lost, they would have ceased to exist. The West would not have allowed Israel to be whipped out either in my opinion. It could have escalated massively.

The perception of the Arab world is sadly a stereo type, no different from the scheming Jew, or the violent Black. The region does have solid grounds for its distrust of the West, The Sykes Picot Plan is a prime example, two aristocratic colonial administrators, who over stepped their brief, and yet the plan was adopted, it destroyed, tribal, religious and even family ties, and created a series of straight lines on a map, which are now the countries of the middle east, imagine if we tried that in Western Europe today, would we have peace any time soon?

The Arab World sees Israel as protected by The US, Trumps decision to move the Embassy a prime example of US disregard for the Arabs, Israeli occupation of Jerusalem is a breach of International Law and the cause of several UN Resolutions (all ignored!).

Trump I am sure ignores his advisors, I know some damn good people in the US Diplomatic Corps, hard working folk, who try very hard to understand the Region, sadly there are too a lot of arseholes, sadly that is not just an American trait, everyone else has them too!

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Old 05-17-2018, 07:15 PM   #1709
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I thought Iran was supporting President Assad ? As an Alawite heretic,He's a natural ally against Sunni Saudi Arabia.
I notice that Donald J's vaunted summit with Lil Kim is doubt now since the US held live fire exercises with South Korea,I'd thought that the South Koreans at least would have had more sense.
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Old 05-17-2018, 07:32 PM   #1710
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I thought Iran was supporting President Assad ? As an Alawite heretic,He's a natural ally against Sunni Saudi Arabia.
I notice that Donald J's vaunted summit with Lil Kim is doubt now since the US held live fire exercises with South Korea,I'd thought that the South Koreans at least would have had more sense.
My apologies I put 'rebel' I meant 'Regime' no excuse, just a lack of concentration due to being knackered!

The Kim summit might not be a bad result! Two megalomaniacs in one room? Dangerous, mind you they both have great wigs!
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