The Second World War.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by palo5

Intelligence failure. It takes weeks to assemble and hide an army like that, so if you have air superiority and can read enemy codes and are able to take prisoners, and you still don't notice anything... you aren't paying attention

I rather thought this was understood in what I said.

• Little or no aggressive patrolling = no prisoners.
• Air superiority: the weather negated this. This was what the Germans waited for before bringing their forces out of camauflage.
• The accumulation of forces was gradual. Aggressive patrolling would have uncovered it, but its not as if the Germans flaunted ten armoured divisions all over the roads. In fact, their dispersal techniques were exceptionally effective, they had the forests to help them and they used the forests very well. Incidentally, they observed a radio blackout to avoid their presence being indicated by volumes of radio traffic.

Originally Posted by palo5

Let me translate: "We weren't expecting an attack because our Intelligence wasn't doing its job. But we have to cover it up, and this is our after-the-event excuse"

It is true that the Allies weren't paying attention. As I have itemised, they had a false sense of security, based on their own successes and the recent months of German weakness in the theatre. I thought I said that?

Originally Posted by palo5

Otherwise, Ambrose is right, because Germany did not have the men or resources to achieve their aim. But that has nothing to do with why they didn't recognize what might be coming

It was a lot of the reason why. In the first weeks of December 1944 the Americans and the British were planning ahead for the late winter offensive into Germany. The idea that the Germans were planning for an immediate offensive against them would have seemed ludicrous; the Germans had not the means and they stood to gain nothing except a salient which they could not hold. The Americans failed to appreciate the follie-de grandeur which underpinned the thinking of ther chief enemy. The British might have rumbled it if the Ardennes had been their sector, only because they had known Adolf longer and had better understanding of his vanity and greed; but the British also thought Germany was played out and didn't expect such a hammer blow as this one would land on the western front ever again.

[palo5]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

...The British might have rumbled it if the Ardennes had been their sector, only because they...

...with the French had been zapped in 1940 with their pants down in precisely the same area, and knew the Germans were capable of surprises

Yes, the British might really have made a difference. Seriously

[rupertramjet]

The German offecive Operation Watch on the Rhine (Unternehmen Wacht am Rhein) had another objective. The intention was to breakthrought the Allied line Surround and destroy the Four Allied Armies in the Region and force the Allies to negotiate peace terms. Allowing Germany to concentrate on the East.

There were also several support operations ( Bodenplatte, Greif and Wahrung) to support this. Even had it been more of a success, would the Western Allies have settled for a seperate Peace? Doubt that, they would have sent in more troops from somewhere.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by palo5

...with the French had been zapped in 1940 with their pants down in precisely the same area, and knew the Germans were capable of surprises

Yes, the British might really have made a difference. Seriously

To be fair, it was one hell of a surprise; and the Germans did cover their tracks before the event quite brilliantly. It is fair comment to say that the Americans ought not to have been caught out, but I don't think their error was outrageous; they (and we Brits, we were minor but significant players in this battle,particularly XXX Corps,which secured the Meuse bridges and later recaptured Celles and Rochefort) were fooled by an exemplary counter-intelligence operation.

I suspect that British forces might have been more alert on general principles, this being the very place where it all went wrong in May 1940; the Americans often thought we respected the Germans too much, but we knew the Germans only too well and they had hurt us too many times for us not to respect them. We would probably have been mounting aggressive patrols and taking prisoners for intelligence purposes; we would definitely have been keen to monitor our opposition. But what happened to the Americans happened to British forces too, especially in the western desert. The only real difference between British and American forces in Belgium in 1944 was that we'd had our fingers burned before and were sadder and wiser for it. But for a fact, Montgomery was talking to Eisenhower about another Rhine crossing in December 1944; he was not talking about any risks from the Germans.

[palo5]

Originally Posted by rupertramjet

...they would have sent in more troops from somewhere.

Of course - they had more manpower than they could use. A big attack for them was 20-50 thousand, which appears modest when compared with the East

[squigg58]

Originally Posted by rupertramjet

Had the Germans reached Antwerp his V Weapons would again be in position to threaten London

The Germans were hitting London with V2's launched from Den Haag as late as March 27th 1945, so I'm not sure Hitler wanted Antwerp retaken for that reason.

[Nobody1]

Originally Posted by squigg58

The Germans were hitting London with V2's launched from Den Haag as late as March 27th 1945, so I'm not sure Hitler wanted Antwerp retaken for that reason.

The port of Antwerp was a main supply of allied forces. The capture was a initial condition for further strategic operations.

[Nobody1]

Originally Posted by tygrkhat40

There was a school of thought that said that if the Allies were hit hard and fast, with enough "shock and awe," the Allies would fold and quit the fight.

This school of thought was called National Socialism. The enemy was even denied the ability to self-sacrifice. The enemy forces were sub-humans. And sub-humans know no higher ideals. They know only money.

(Nazi mindset)

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by Nobody1

The port of Antwerp was a main supply of allied forces. The capture was a initial condition for further strategic operations.

Unless there had been a windfall, such as a huge capture of Allied fuel dumps and the surrender of important forces encircled in Belgium and Holland, further offensives would have been beyond the scope of Germany's reserves. But the capture of Antwerp would have deranged the Allied supply situation, and no doubt a well conducted demolition program would have put the port out of action for many weeks even after recapture.

Possibly the most critical blow possible would have been to capture the main British Comonwealth armies, all of which could have been encircled. I doubt if that could have been achieved; they were well supported by air power and at the worst would have been resupplied by air long enough to either break out or be relieved. But I suspect that rupertramjet is right. Had Britain lost even 12 divisions, which was about the strength of 21st Army Group, she would have replaced them. Men would have been transferred from other duties, and we would have even laid up battleships to transfer navy men into the army, and possibly even scaled back RAF Bomber Command and reduced the manpower of our domestic air defence squadrons. It might have meant going on the defensive in Italy to move formations across to North West Europe. Worst of all, it would have taken about 6 months to train up 12 new divisions and they would not have been of the same calibre as the units already serving in the 21st Army Group. But never would Britain have quit, so late in the war and with the German frontier so close; the war would have been pushed to a logical conclusion no matter what successes the German forces could still achieve.

And we wanted our pound of flesh; we were very personal about it. Our war wasn't Prince Metternich's "diplomacy by other means"; it was a dog fight in a pit; two enter, one leaves.

[rupertramjet]

Totally right, one of the prime objectives was the taking of the Fuel Dumps. There was an interesting documentary, on the Secrets of World War Two, series about the control and loss of fuel supplies to the Germans, they knew tht without the fuel supplies this, and any other, offensive would peter out.

It was quoted that ' The Luftwaffe had the planes, were short of experienced pilots, but were grounded for lack of fuel'