The Third World War

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by trailmaster

In my opinion there will never be World War 3 in my lifetime. The end of the cold war and the breakup of the Soviet Union ends at least for the time being any threat from the Russians. China is still communist, but they are embracing some of the ideals of capitalism so I don't think they have plans to start a war which would devastate their nation and destroy all the gains they have made in the last ten years. Then there is North Korea which claims it has a million man army and has the bomb, but I know that if the North Koreans tried anything funny the Chinese would stop them, and Russia would help also. But there is one more thing that is more frightening than a war using atom or h bombs and that is germs that are being studied in secret labs all over the world. What if one day some superbug gets out of one of these labs and infects just one person. The pandemic from this infection could decimate the entire population of the world in just a couple of months.

The North Koreans are highly belligerent and unstable in their conduct towards the outside world but with them it is all about keeping the ruling family in power. They need to maintain a permanent state of emergency for internal political reasons. If they were bigger they would be a bigger threat because they are very capable of invading South Korea should they believe they could defeat the place. As things are, they maintain a huge military for a country with so little resources and in the main the purpose is defensive. There can be little doubt that the United States would crush them like beetles if they were weaker, and if China could be relied on to do nothing, but of course neither of these preconditions is met.

In the end, China is the country most likely to crush North Korea. There is clear evidence that China is unhappy with her neighbour and ally. But China is a conservative power when it comes to military actions and would not attack North Korea casually or without a really strong cause for action.

[Arturo2nd]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

The North Koreans are highly belligerent and unstable in their conduct towards the outside world but with them it is all about keeping the ruling family in power. They need to maintain a permanent state of emergency for internal political reasons. If they were bigger they would be a bigger threat because they are very capable of invading South Korea should they believe they could defeat the place. As things are, they maintain a huge military for a country with so little resources and in the main the purpose is defensive. There can be little doubt that the United States would crush them like beetles if they were weaker, and if China could be relied on to do nothing, but of course neither of these preconditions is met.

In the end, China is the country most likely to crush North Korea. There is clear evidence that China is unhappy with her neighbour and ally. But China is a conservative power when it comes to military actions and would not attack North Korea casually or without a really strong cause for action.

There is a long history of countries ridding themselves of the likes of Kim Jong-un. He has been executing memers of the inner circle. I expect some of that crowd will decide to take him out as a matter of self preservation in the near future. He does not appear to have Stalin's cunning.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/north-korea...-fears-1568669

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...125_story.html

[maildude]

The U.S. will never let Israel fall. That's the ticket to WW3. In the fabric of that event, most nations in some respect will be pulled into the conflict.

[Ennath]

China's economy has been struggling of late and so they've been turning up the nationalist rhetoric and claiming the entire South China Sea. If they get desperate enough, they might start playing chicken with neighbors like Japan or India, or try invading Taiwan.

And you've left out Iran, entirely. If any country is likely to get out of hand, they're it.

[Arturo2nd]

Originally Posted by Ennath

China's economy has been struggling of late and so they've been turning up the nationalist rhetoric and claiming the entire South China Sea. If they get desperate enough, they might start playing chicken with neighbors like Japan or India, or try invading Taiwan.

And you've left out Iran, entirely. If any country is likely to get out of hand, they're it.

The U.S. has the largest Navy and most far flung network of bases. It is the one nation that has most often attacked other countries since World War II.

China has the most men under arms, but I believe that Chinese leadership knows that wars drain resources from a country. They may be pushing some of their smaller neighbors around, but are certainly aware of the hornets nest the old empire encountered in Vietnam. Their neighboring rival India is just too big to tackle and has the same problems of population size as China. They are also so intertwined with Japan economically that military effort in that direction would be very costly. Things are friendly now, but Russia grabbed large chunks of Chinese territory in the previous couple of centuries. If China is really looking to expand, that will be the most likely and convienient direction.

Iran's internal dynamics may lead the mullahs to divert attention by external aggression, but we also have much evidence that there is a lot of pushback from their people who are tired of living in their "Islamic paradise." Iranians have always been a fun loving and sensual people, despite the efforts of a well organized minority of violent religious fanatics. My Lebanese Chritian friend calls the Iranians "a degenerate people."

The U.S. is the one country with a major military weapons industry pushing it towards aggressive action. I suppose the Russians may want to flex their muscles and look tough, but it is not clear that their economy will sustain a major conflict. Somehow, the world has allowed the U.S. to keep printing up money and sell bonds to fund its brand of military terror. How long this will last is anybody's guess. I suppose the good news is that American youth is so physically unfit and narcissitic that a serious damper is placed on the politicos ability to wage a mammoth war of aggression. Plus, we no longer have a merchant marine or ship building industry to move several million soldiers across the oceans.

Ah, but all this analysis gravely underestimates the power of human stupidity that courses through our murderous past.

[crinolynne]

Originally Posted by Brian249x

I suppose the Russians may want to flex their muscles and look tough, but it is not clear that their economy will sustain a major conflict.

I would submit the Russians have taken asymmetric warfare to the next level and are winning quite handedly. I would suggest the Mr T is complicit in this because he sees an Russo-American alliance as being the best counter to a resurging, yes "re", China. But both are fighting the Grand Game with weapons and propoganda, the Chinese are doing it with hearts and minds in South America and Africa, and it is they who are winning the long game. Hope the Montenegrans can do something about it...

[tsunamiSD]

Originally Posted by Ennath

China's economy has been struggling of late and so they've been turning up the nationalist rhetoric and claiming the entire South China Sea.

Funny you should mention that, there a long article (with a nice size bibliography) at Baen Books on that very subject:

Conflict in the South China Sea, by J.R. Dunn