Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by palo5

I should have guessed you'd say something like that. However, since Britain's "problem" with the EU is one of sovereignty, and you don't give yourselves much at home anyway, I don't think it's off-topic

Britain has problems with the EU as do all EU states. There are anti Europe movements in each country, they may be more vocal here. The UK has a particular history in Europe in that we joined a common market early on and when we had a chance to vote on whether to leave it was just that to leave a common market, information on any future plans was withheld from voters. I was too young to vote, just... but I remember most of the talk at that time was about trade and other related issues, it was argued that we would lose trade with Australia and NZ etc but it seemed logical to increase trade with close neighbours.
I'll ignore any similar posts about UK democracy here from a Russian citizen as I would similarly ignore advice on animal welfare from China or women's rights from a Saudi.

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by palo5

So while I'm definitely sympathetic with sovereignty arguments, the way UK uses them is more than a little preposterous, imho -- and if they sign TPIP and the Atlantic version they'll even give corporations the right to sue their government. How's that for handing over sovereignty?

You also need to learn the difference between the British public and the British Government, there is a strong groundswell of public opinion here against TPIP. I am one of those who voted against it.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/29f1f7f2-3...#axzz41OCjRjYR

[palo5]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

You also need to learn the difference between the British public and the British Government...

With respect, I've always known it -- why else do you think I keep telling you that you always have an unrepresentative government? I know you don't like it, but you have no reason to say I need to learn the difference -- I keep telling you, and you keep shutting me up

Not unlike Cameron, actually. He calls the referendum because he thinks he'll win, but his real reason is to shut people up. Either that, or he thought the promise would win him an election

It seems to me that both hopes were short-sighted, although he did "win" an election with an unrepresentative minority

What is your opinion about his motivation?

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by palo5

What is your opinion about his (Cameron's) motivation?

About the EU ... he was tied into a referendum largely due to the rise of UKIP, Labour hinted that under them one was unlikely. I think he knew it would be popular with the electorate at the General Election but I think personally he and other top Conservatives and importantly their financial backers want us to stay in which is why he is making big noises about concessions.

Over the years we have seen EU quotas shrink our fishing industry, the CAP was a farce getting farmers to produce goods that we already had excess capacity of which is why they had the infamous butter mountains, wine lakes etc.

I accept there have been some reforms ...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-32129018
http://www.ecpa.eu/information-page/...ral-policy-cap

However issues like these linger in our memories
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-worth-50.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14143606
http://www.brusselstimes.com/magazin...in-our-history

It could be too close to call and one slip up by either side in the next few months could be a deciding factor.

I am about 55% for voting to come out, I want to hear positives from the EU about reforms and I want less of this sort of scaremongering.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-35685656

[scoundrel]

You wre addressing Wendigo, Comrade, but I would quite like to pick this question up as well.

Mr Cameron is using the EU referendum as a strategy to deal with the same poisonous tensions inside his party which crippled the John Major government twenty years ago. There is anti-European sentiment on the British left as well, exampled notably by the late Tony Benn, but most of it comes from the rightwing in British politics. Rather than be held to ransom by his own Little Englander right wing, Mr Cameron is making them argue their point of view before the UK public and either win the argument decisively or lose it decisively.

Now; speaking only for myself, I don't want a bloody referendum on Europe. I think it is not in Britain's interests to have one. Britain has good reasons to be dissatisfied with the way the EU is operated and the "ever closer Union" bollocks, but there is no reason why Britain should have to participate in "ever closer Union". We really ought to have reserved the referendum card for when we were being pressured to sign up to the Treaty of Lisbon, a European constitution by any other name. A referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon would make sense. A referendum to revisit a decision we made in 1975 makes no sense at all; it is like waiting until I reached the Carter Bar before asking me whether I think driving from London to Edinburgh is a good decision.

What this referendum will achieve:

• It will make it impossible to demand a referendum for many years (decades) no matter what constitutional decisions and treaties are imposed on Britain.
• It will undermine our standing in collective bargaining, precisely because our EU partners will know we were not up for it when offered a chance to leave.
• It will seriously piss our European partners off and flop Britain's goodwill in Europe lower than whaleshit; no doubt it already has done this.

I do not think the British people will vote to leave. Outside the ranks of the Conservative Party right wing and of UKIP, Veritas and similar fringe parties, I do not see much enthusiasm for leaving. It might be that we should leave; but there was no grassroots pressure for this referendum outside the Tory Party and UKIP, which is insufficient to carry a vote to leave. Unless there is a strong majority in favour of leaving, holding a referendum is against Britain's interests, because we will be obliged to do business inside the EU with a lot of other countries who will be feeling seriously fucked off with us. The worst of both worlds.

[Mal Hombre]

I imagine Mr Cameron bitterly regrets committing Himself to this referendum but He's stuck with it now.

[CARLTON BROWN]

Two questions.

Will this referendum actually matter as the EU is showing signs of starting to fall apart and should the public decide to opt out, will Cameron and his cronies all resign, effectively giving us a change of government?

[thunderfly]

If Britain does vote to leave, perhaps all those that wanted to stay in Europe can move to France. Preferably Calais.

[gordian_knot]

According to Mervyn King, we're headed for another financial crisis along the lines of 2008, and he thinks it'll be triggered in the eurozone. Of course he could be wrong, but if he's right and we vote to stay in the EU, we could go down the pan along with the rest of them. To be sure, everyone would be affected by another collapse but being outside the EU might give us more opportunities to steer clear of most of the fallout.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by gordian_knot

According to Mervyn King, we're headed for another financial crisis along the lines of 2008, and he thinks it'll be triggered in the eurozone. Of course he could be wrong, but if he's right and we vote to stay in the EU, we could go down the pan along with the rest of them. To be sure, everyone would be affected by another collapse but being outside the EU might give us more opportunities to steer clear of most of the fallout.

The problem with the Eurozone in 2009 and now in 2016 is that it applies one economic policy across over 20 member nations. The economic policy is largely controlled by Germany; the European Central Bank should have brought in quantitative easing in the spring of 2009 when the Fed and the Bank of England did, but Mrs Merkel was against the idea. The ECB finally commenced a quantitative easing program in March 2015.

Had Mrs Merkel and the ECB been calling the shots instead of the Bank of England, the consequences for Britain fiscally and economically would have been dire. Austerity measures have bitten deep as it is, and we keep threatening to balance our budget sometime or other, but the degree of retrenchment imposed on countries such as Ireland and Spain would have suffocated our economy as it has theirs.

However, no one can make us enter the Eurozone against our will. We have a specific opt out on that; and incidentally this is something which many British people (including myself) would regard as a deal-breaker. I would definitely vote to leave the EU if staying meant that we would ever be expected to join the Eurozone against our wishes, under any circumstances. But how could they attempt to bring this about? The popular resistance in Britain would be extremely hard to overcome, especially after the Greek bailout fiasco. We aren't keen to let the Greek government spend our money and what we have seen is a structural failure of the concept, which would undermine the confidence of any potential new joiner.

I think the Eurozone will sink or swim without Britain, regardless of whether Britain votes In or Out in June. These are related but seperate issues.