Things Noticeable this week

[otokonomidori]

Originally Posted by rewbear

Seriously though, I'd be absolutely bricking it if I lived on Guam?

Safest place to be - no way will those bucketheads be able to hit such a small target!

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by rewbear

Something NOT noticeable this week, or at least I haven't seen any evidence, is the sheer lack of CNN, BBC, NBC etc TV crews swarming over Guam getting residents' feelings about being in N Korea's crosshairs. Not like them to miss out on being in a war zone before war actually breaks out.
Seriously though, I'd be absolutely bricking it if I lived on Guam, what with the out-and-out threat, and POTUS doing his damndest to ramp up the threat level. Now, where's that '1st boat out of here' timetable?

In terms of the actual military threat to Guam right now, North Korea would struggle to hit a much bigger target than that; there is a difference between having a missile that can reach and a missile that can fly accurately to a specific destination. North Korea also has not yet tested a nuclear device which is capable of being carried in a missile.

But I suspect that the end game is close now. Either North Korea will cut a deal or America will crush her. It is extremely dangerous to have Kim Jung Un armed with a viable nuclear missile capability and although it is hard to predict Donald Trump's exact moves, in general terms I think he will go to war sooner than allow this to happen and that Congress will support this war. Other US allies will come on board provided the US can plausibly show they have been attacked, and a missile launch at Guam would be quite enough to show that.

North Korea has hidden behind China for decades but provided China can be certain that her own regional interests are not going to be slighted, there are clear signs that she is extremely tired of Kim Jung Un. Those North Korean missiles are a threat to China as well. Even Putin in Russia evidently wants to put pressure on the North Koreans, supporting the US led sanctions initiative in spite of very bad Russian-US relations at the moment. The North Koreans have isolated themselves rather effectively and what their hysterical rhetoric does is to make other big players as well as the USA incline to the view that a war to prevent these people having nuclear missiles is good business sense.

[vinceprince]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

But I suspect that the end game is close now. Either North Korea will cut a deal or America will crush her.

The US military has already played out numerous US - North Korea wargame scenarios and they all ended very badly for everyone.

The US just doesn't have enough conventional forces and ammunition to take out the N.Korean forces. They would have to use nukes early on to do it. Once that happens the whole peninsula would likely be destroyed, tens of millions dead and who knows how it could escalate from there.

[Wendigo]

It would help if the Chinese stopped being such ideologically twisted cowards and have the balls to say that an attack on anyone by the latest inbred Kim family retard will be seen as an attempt to undermine security in that whole area.
China talks big but acts small, it is the equivalent of a Tyrannosaurus Rex with no teeth, arthritis and woollen mittens over its tiny clawless hands.
They have allowed the Kim dynasty to get away with murder far too long, they created the problem by constantly pandering to him and his deluded bloodline and not keeping the dumbass fucktard and his Deliverance style family tree on a tight leash.
China a world power .....

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

It would help if the Chinese stopped being such ideologically twisted cowards and have the balls to say that an attack on anyone by the latest inbred Kim family retard will be seen as an attempt to undermine security in that whole area.
China talks big but acts small, it is the equivalent of a Tyrannosaurus Rex with no teeth, arthritis and woollen mittens over its tiny clawless hands.
They have allowed the Kim dynasty to get away with murder far too long, they created the problem by constantly pandering to him and his deluded bloodline and not keeping the dumbass fucktard and his Deliverance style family tree on a tight leash.
China a world power .....

It is certainly true that America would have to fully mobilise to fight North Korea to the death using conventional means. China could probably do it with the forces she has available right now. What China needs to consider is whether she wants a North Korean buffer state or is willing to risk Korean reunification on American and South Korean terms. It would suit others much better if China decided to do the job herself, but the only reason why that would ever happen is if it were to be in China's interests to do it. What China needs to consider is whether she is willing to risk an American intervention which could very quickly go nuclear. In order for there to be any chance of a Chinese intervention, the Chinese would need to be absolutely convinced that the Americans are really going to attack North Korea.

[Rogerbh]

Here is a video of a policeman being shot in the line of duty.
https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f92_1502397420
Perp got 35 years.
http://www.jaspersuntimes.com/news/2...police-officer

[gordian_knot]

Originally Posted by rewbear

Something NOT noticeable this week, or at least I haven't seen any evidence, is the sheer lack of CNN, BBC, NBC etc TV crews swarming over Guam getting residents' feelings about being in N Korea's crosshairs. Not like them to miss out on being in a war zone before war actually breaks out.

That's because most people realize that the whole thing is phoney. N. Korea has been making outrageous threats for 60 years, and keep doing it because they believe doing so has kept them safe from attack for all that time. Trump makes threats because that's what he does, but it's hot air. He talks up a threat he knows isn't real, warns of dire repercussions, then, when the threat doesn't materialise because it never existed, he takes credit for stopping it.

Notice that Trump has changed his threats from acting if N. Korea keeps developing a nuclear capability (which he can't stop) to acting if they attack Guam, which isn't going to happen.

The problem with rhetoric and brinkmanship though is that something like a missile going off course or Trump tweeting himself into a corner could cause by accident what I don't think anyone is intending to start on purpose.

The solution to N. Korea is to accept that they are going to become a nuclear power, ease back on the threats and sanctions and bring them back into the international community. They've been after a trade deal with the US for years, so they want to normalise relations, not start throwing nuclear misslies around just because they have the capability.

[Rogerbh]

So what happens if N Korean tests fires their missiles as they supposedly say they will, both just before and over Guam? What are the chances that they will be accurate enough that the US won't believe they are aimed at Guam?

I can see an indicted Trump attacking N Korea in such a situation just to get the spotlight off of his legal problems. I could see Hillary doing the same to prove she is just as tough as a man. N Korea by test firing around Guam can easily start a nuclear war. I don't see any good answers - letting this regime slowly perfect its weapons does not seem to be the best answer.

[gordian_knot]

Originally Posted by Rogerbh

So what happens if N Korean tests fires their missiles as they supposedly say they will, both just before and over Guam? What are the chances that they will be accurate enough that the US won't believe they are aimed at Guam?

I can see an indicted Trump attacking N Korea in such a situation just to get the spotlight off of his legal problems. I could see Hillary doing the same to prove she is just as tough as a man. N Korea by test firing around Guam can easily start a nuclear war. I don't see any good answers - letting this regime slowly perfect its weapons does not seem to be the best answer.

You'd hope N. Korea wouldn't take that risk and you'd hope wiser heads in the White House would tie Trump's thumbs together.

As for stopping N. Korea's missle program - are you prepared to condemn millions of Koreans to death to achieve that aim?

[vinceprince]

Originally Posted by gordian_knot

You'd hope N. Korea wouldn't take that risk and you'd hope wiser heads in the White House would tie Trump's thumbs together.

Trump gets up early in the morning before any of those wise heads are around. It's either twitter or the nuclear football.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNFVN0Jz0rE