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September 8th, 2018, 04:10 PM | #3981 | |
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The French diplomat Talleyrand once observed that "most things get done by not getting done". Britain and the EU are suffering from diplomacy directed by mercurial politics. A much better course would be slower, more boring, less Bojo. There is skill to negotiations-- no divorce is every really amicable, but handled badly, they can be _really_unpleasant. |
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September 8th, 2018, 05:56 PM | #3982 | |
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I can't imagine where the UK military wants to be involved, except to find out what the EU are doing. Their practical input is zero. The EU has sufficient defense potential, without the UK or US. That's the message they're sending. There is no need to involve the UK in EU defense, and anyone can see why |
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September 9th, 2018, 07:37 AM | #3983 | |
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September 9th, 2018, 07:46 AM | #3984 | |
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If anyone says to me that the British government has utterly mishandled this process, I would instantly agree. Most of them are not genuinely on board for it and I strongly suspect that many of them actively want to make a mess of it, and then say that proves it is a bad idea. What this would prove is that they themselves are a bad idea and should not be in positions of power and responsibility. However, I would prefer this separation to be agreed and (if not amicable) at least orderly and civilised. But I do want a separation; I don't want this Chequers Plan, which is a "lets pretend" option, basically a con and a pack of bollocks. I'd rather have a simple free trade deal and negotiate terms for trade in services.
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September 9th, 2018, 08:49 AM | #3985 | |||
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I can fundamentally agree with your personal sentiments and (as I´ve said before) I do fully respect the intention of the UK to leave the European Union, for whatever plausible or unplausible reasons. However (and this is not to be taken hostile), I would certainly not agree if our negotiators from the EU-side gave up core principles just because your negotiators have failed to offer substantial counter-offers and/or are now under pressure because of the fixed time-line. We -the EU- can´t impossibly be held responsible for this particular situation on your side. But hey, we still talk .
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September 9th, 2018, 09:54 AM | #3986 |
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The reason why Mrs May is making such a dog's dinner of this process is that her position is weak, she herself is weak, and she is attempting to reconcile irreconcilable things. She wants to leave the jusrisdiction of the ECJ, which I agree with, but cannot bring herself to accept that this also means not being the single market - so she tries to invent an ersatz common trade area. I am actually glad that Mr Barnier will not allow this. As Charles De Gaulle once did when he refused to allow Harold MacMillan's Britain to join, Mr Barnier is showing Britain tough love and working towards an actually achievable solution instead of a pack of bollocks designed to serve internal Tory Party needs.
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September 9th, 2018, 12:10 PM | #3987 | |
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The problem with "drop dead deadlines" -- is that sometimes you do "drop dead". I think a neutral view would be that both Britain and the EU's negotiating positions are being shaped by a very precarious political environment. This is, objectively, a very complex negotiation with a lot of moving parts. You can compare with other multinational trade agreements-- these typically take between five and ten years. That's actually a reasonable amount of time to budget to get something like this done, if you want to avoid unnecessary unhappiness. The UK has a lot of interests in play, a lot of security interests in a strong Europe to counter a murderous Russia. With the US in decline -- for how long who can say-- blowing up a necessary alliance isn't a win. I do see the logic of a UK deaccession, but not a chaotic "free fall" because of an arbitrary deadline. |
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September 9th, 2018, 01:39 PM | #3988 | |
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If there is a 'no deal' by the deadline, she and her Gov't are finished, the Tories implode. Or she has to face the total humiliation of asking the EU and Parliament for an extension. Again she's politically finished and the Tories implode. |
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September 9th, 2018, 03:24 PM | #3989 | |
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On the plus side though VP we do have an extremely strong and totally united opposition party so if the Conservatives do implode it won't be a big issue
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September 9th, 2018, 03:53 PM | #3990 | |
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If May had started the Brexit negotiations for a Canada deal in late 2016, it might have been completed by the end of 2020. But now, there's too little time left to sign such a deal by the end of 2020. The EU and the hard Brexiters don't want another extension of the transition. So we have a blind Brexit or a no-deal Brexit as possible scenarios left. |
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