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July 21st, 2023, 02:32 AM | #1 | |
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Hollywood on Strike...RIP
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If the AMPTP thinks they can starve out the strikers, let's break down some of their vulnerabilities: 1. Disney's movie businesses: now straight up losing hundreds of millions per movie, like the last Indiana Jones film. Nothing good looks to be in the pipeline, thanks to the 3-4 year timeline required to develop a movie. 2. The rest of the theatrical movie business: outside of "retro" movies like Mission: Impossible and an occasional independent production, nobody cares. Superhero fatigue is in full swing. 3. Warner Bros./Discovery: another cable-heavy loser of billions. Has made up for it by mostly getting out of the movie business, as DC films weren't faring any better, as well as DOA network, the CW. [HBO] Max has been pulling content off of their service, and has experienced a lot of ups and downs in their original programming. 4. Disney+: some analysts think it will be gone within a year. They just don't produce anything people want to watch. 5. ESPN: loses billions, yet has billions more in outstanding contracts. They literally can't fire employees fast enough. People have quit sports, and the ratings show it. Disney is looking to sell this hot potato. 6. ABC: Disney is looking to sell this too. But to whom? Speaking of dead broadcast networks, Fox is in Disney's portfolio too. The mouse is stuck with a bunch of dead assets. In summary, Iger & the rest of Disney management has got to be in full panic mode right now. 7. Peacock & Paramount+: already lose billions a year, and as they run out their backlog of new shows, their few subscribers wil bolt. Again, if the strikes go on for a year, which I think is likely, they'll be gone too. After the 'Cock, Comcast will be stuck with low-profit entities, NBC/Universal & an ISP business, and losing entities, a portfolio of cable channels. Paramount will be CBS. 8. AppleTV+: the bad public relations created by this soon-to-be extended strike will stain them too, and I think, will cause Apple to drop their hobby of trying to make TV shows. 9. Amazon Prime: they've already cut back on original productions, even though a sequel to their disasterous Lord of the Rings show is supposedly still in the works. Their NFL contract hasn't moved the needle. I've noticed, and others have reported, that a lot of older shows have slowly disappeared from Prime, and moved over to the "FAST" services (ad-supported multiple live channel streaming). For books & audiobooks, Amazon already has pay-per-book services. Some analysts think that Prime video will move entirely to this model, with Prime subscribers getting a discount on "pay-per-shows". 10. Hulu: a good idea, especially if they could ever find a way to offer a-la-carte cable channels. But, being split between Disney & Comcast and their recent loss of subscribers don't bode well for this weirdly-named app. 11. YouTube & other free, ad-supported vertical video sites: ad rates are down 75%, reportedly, and a lot of those "content creators", and that deunionized economy, are slowly dying. I guess "targeted advertising" isn't what it's cracked up to be. To summarize, the streaming "revolution" that started these strikes will experience quite the culling, as the walkouts continue. What survives in anything resembling its current form (as in, not having to sell or shutdown significant assets)? 1. Netflix: they're the ones who started the realization that customers are churning these services like crazy. They're also the ones most villified by the strikers. But, they're number one. On the other hand, they're also making stuff no one watches, so what's their future? Maybe pay-per-shows too? 2. FAST Services: this is the future of streaming, as well as cable-style channels, I think. Even a few YouTube operations have started showing up on apps like PlutoTV, to provide a backup in case YouTube cuts off ad sharing. As prestige TV becomes too expensive, and other things, like cable channels, die off, people will discover the nearly infinite inventory of old shows on these services. And, you can't beat the price of $0. 3. Broadcast Networks: since streaming won't save them, and cable is already on life support (see the bankruptcy of Sinclair/Diamond Sports and their portfolio of Regional Sports Networks), sports will have to settle for the money they can get here. A symbiotic relationship may serve both well. As genres like reality shows die, the networks will also have to focus on making shows people want to watch. Since their costs are lower, they may be the best positioned to return as the primary provider of new, original television. 4. Sony & some other smaller movie studios might be OK just to sit tight for a while. 5. Max may be one of the few major streaming services to survive, but only if they don't make anymore Velma. On the other side of this conflict, the problem for most of the strikers, and ironically for the industry, is that their careers are really already over. There will be fewer productions, with fewer streaming services and cable channels. Most never made much to begin with and certainly not enough to continue to be able to afford to live in Los Angeles. Many of these people, both writers and actors, already have to be planning moves and new careers (preferably in a less saturated industry). So, the strikers literally have nothing to lose, but revenge on the corporations. The overconsolidation of media in the US is finally coming home to roost. Get me some popcorn. |
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July 27th, 2023, 02:31 AM | #2 | |||
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Disney CEO Bob Iger blurted out on TV that Disney didn't need traditional TV anymore, despite the fact that Disney+ is largely responsible for their running $1 billion losses per quarter. General reaction across Disney? Getting their resumes up-to-date. (https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...124034450.html)
People's habits change quickly, and streaming appears to be in more trouble than cable. Iger, and the rest of his ilk, are very slow to recognize their tenuous position: 1. Surveys from the last several months indicate that viewers are dissatisfied with what's on streaming (https://www.pcmag.com/news/welcome-b...aming-services , https://www.tomsguide.com/news/cutti...bout-streaming). Some quotes: Quote:
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2. People habitually watch one show & then immediately cancel (https://www.forbes.com/home-improvem...eaming-survey/). 3. The economics just don't make sense. This article is technical and a bit dated, so it doesn't address the economics of niche content (i.e., everything on the Internet), but there are some interesting take-aways from https://dougshapiro.medium.com/one-c...-683304b3055d: Quote:
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August 3rd, 2023, 06:41 PM | #3 |
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There's an interesting side angle brewing in Hollywood (and there's no college sports thread here). The ballooning costs of movies & TV shows have been well-documented. So, have the losses of the failed streaming service experiment and of the failed superhero movie experiment and of the 500-channel cable TV experiment. Less well-documented are the ballooning costs of broadcasting sporting events.
The Pac-12 Conference, which includes schools like Stanford & Cal Berkeley, have had 3 members leave (UCLA, USC, & Colorado). The conference has been feverishly looking for another big rights deal for their games, with virtually no takers. Disney, Comcast, etc. ghosted them, as their ratings are historically notoriously low. Now 4 other schools, including the aforementioned Bay Area schools, plus Washington & Oregon, are joining the LA schools in the Big 10, a historically Midwestern-based conference that has a shiny, new, primarily broadcast-based TV deal. Other large institutions like Florida State are putting out their "Open for Business" sign. A super conference is coming. This leaves the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 out in the cold for any big future TV rights deals. I mention this because this is clear evidence that the money tap in Hollywood is running dry. It's not because there's no money in the bank, it's because it's now more expensive to operate than it is to sit on the interest. |
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August 5th, 2023, 09:31 AM | #4 | |
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Well done, Gordon3...
Thank you for an incisive and intelligent thread, and refreshingly free of "left v right political dogma"...
One small point: IMO, the success of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 shows there is still an appetite for the superhero genre - IF DONE RIGHT. Sadly though, this film and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (so far) appears to be exceptions to the recent offerings, which range from middling to "Meh" to outright dross (take a bow, Thor: Love and Thunder). Anyway, according to a recent "Vanity Fair" article, the Writers Guild of America and Hollywood’s biggest studios have agreed to meet for the first time in three months... Quote:
Is This the Beginning of the End of the Writers Strike? (Vanity Fair August 2, 2023)
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August 5th, 2023, 12:32 PM | #5 |
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I don't subscribe to any of the streaming services, but I have seen the odd bits of material they produce, for me the overall impression is mainly one of over-saturation and too many productions that seem to be trying to please everyone (I did enjoy Andor though).
I agree the Superhero stuff since Avengers Endgame has been mostly poor, Disney etc have taken viewer loyalty for granted and tried to milk their lesser material with creative talent spread too thin, Spiderverse and The Boys have been notable exceptions. However on both points I think a period of consolodation will be followed by stronger material again. It has been striking how the MCU movies have mirrored the patterns of Marvel Comics Publishing, they follow periods of success with less creative risk-taking leading to falling sales, and when things get bad enough they have nothing to lose by taking off the straitjacket again - cue a return to success. I hope the actors and writers get a better deal, both for their welfare and future quality of output - if these studios have free rein to crank out AI generated stuff they could REALLY crank out the average nonsense even moreso. |
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August 5th, 2023, 07:42 PM | #6 | |||||
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But it was also good for a quote about the AI over-hype, since it has become a hot potato in Hollywood (translation below): Quote:
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August 6th, 2023, 01:27 PM | #7 | |
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It also seems quite stylised, though few people complain about the Impressionists all being much of a muchness. It won't be long before AI can draw hands as well as Da Vinci. And if one can't tell the difference, is the viewing fulfillment diminished once the production process is revealed? I also think if the creative minds can be replaced, then it can't be that difficult to replace the studio heads responsible for decision-making. They should be careful what they wish for. |
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August 6th, 2023, 02:09 PM | #8 |
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That's a very good point, An AI could run a studio at least as well the current crop..
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August 12th, 2023, 05:45 AM | #9 | ||
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I'm just posting to include some found insightful comments about the chickens coming home to roost in the entertainment business, from an article at https://arstechnica.com/culture/2023...ing-the-price/ .
Most of the comments with the article are basically "I'm going to start churning services, since prices are going up & content is going down." Thanks, do you want a cookie? Anyway, while I've already posted a couple of these points already, read these comments instead: Quote:
Quote:
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August 14th, 2023, 07:29 PM | #10 | ||
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The tech "journalism" sites are in varying stages of grief over their beloved streaming services, sobbing over the end of Hollywood as they have come to know and love it. While there have been a number of pieces over the past couple of weeks, an article on Techdirt actually gets at some of the causes, rather than just whining (https://www.techdirt.com/2023/08/14/...ng-crackdowns/). (I like that word, enshittification; it is the perfect word to encapsulate modern capitalism and the entire Reagan/Thatcher Era.) Unfortunately, like all tech media, their head is firmly ensconced in their rectum, so they don't realize how dissatisfied the general public is and how bad the revolt is going to be.
Ultimately, content companies thought they were tech companies, and tried to grow fast through attractive pricing. This strategy assumed that they would put out a lineup of great shows to appeal to wide audiences. What did we get instead? Prestige TV. For example, Succession, a show about a bunch of assholes, with one slightly bigger asshole, just like all of the reality television of the past three decades. A couple of quotes from the head writer on some AppleTV+ show, which shows that the sides in both strikes are still very far apart: Quote:
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On the demand side, the actually important side, you've got streaming services, broadcast networks, cable channels, and a near infinite inventory of YouTubers, Twitch streamers, and even Tiktok videos, a very saturated situation, indeed. (Although, big YouTubers & podcasters can survive a long time as they can easily lower costs to deal with lower revenue.) On the supply side, advertisers are pulling back & paying less. Investors are no longer throwing money at the sector. Loans are more expensive because of interest rate hikes. Inflation is causing production costs to go through the roof. Plus, there's the other previously mentioned issues, such as the costs of going direct-to-consumer and the fact that revenue per household is 1/6 of that of traditional methods. Settling these strikes will only add to the costs. Not settling will cause the clock on the time bomb to tick faster, as cancellations will flood in. The producers thought that viewers would pony up to watch every show that some random acquaintance mentioned was great. Producers thought that viewers would go right back to paying the $50, $100, $150, $200 per month "Hollywood Tax". Producers thought that viewers would go right back to the bundle and pay for stuff that they don't watch. Every producer thought that viewers couldn't live without them, a dangerous notion. Instead, viewers have only been trained to churn and to do without. To make a profit in the future, a content owner will have to have low costs and access to a large audience base, such as, one or two paid streaming services plus FAST apps, or an ad-supported platform that can be accessed by a sufficiently broad set of viewers (broadcast television). |
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