Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by G-Type

As much as I share sympathies to those who wanna have a clear cut and firm position to make the best out of the negotiations, I am meanwhile highly disturbed and irritated by the slight arrogance being shown here.

Do you really think that your negotiation-powers will be the same as they were before the Brexit? Do you really think that at the end of the deal you (the UK) will have all the same priviliges in your co-operation with the EU just without the "ah soo terrible" former obligations?

IMHO, it is highly naive to think so.
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No I don't think the negotiating powers will be the same, they will be different but who knows what will come into the mix over the next few years that is not apparent now?

It's not arrogance in any way shape or form, it's being open minded to the fact that we don't know how this change will pan out. What is arrogant is assuming that nothing will change when the talking has not even started.

As for the phrases you quoted the EU leaders need to take a good look at themselves as they are in denial that there is no dissatisfaction across the EU, why at EU elections is the turnout so poor? That is quite telling.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by G-Type

How true, how true...



As much as I share sympathies to those who wanna have a clear cut and firm position to make the best out of the negotiations, I am meanwhile highly disturbed and irritated by the slight arrogance being shown here.

Do you really think that your negotiation-powers will be the same as they were before the Brexit? Do you really think that at the end of the deal you (the UK) will have all the same priviliges in your co-operation with the EU just without the "ah soo terrible" former obligations?

IMHO, it is highly naive to think so.
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I dare say some people and even politicians (who should know better) thought this, but it was not and is not my own view and was a part of the agony of indecision I experienced when the moment of truth came. I went into the polling booth and honestly didn't know how I would vote, which I have never experienced before. When the referendum was first announced I was pretty sure I would vote to stay in, but as the campaigning went on it slowly dawned on me that I was the only person I knew making a rational case for Remain. The official Remain campaign was a disgrace, seeking only to play on fears and also implying a character-assassination of the Leave vote. I am very contrarian, and when people seek to twist my arm and pressurise me it makes me truculent and full of dumb insolence. Not that I thought anything good of the Leave campaign either: I am not much surprised by the subsequent desertions of Mr Farage and Boris Johnson, leaving others to clean up the pool of vomit after the night out on the town.

It is and always was clear to me that the economic arguments of the Leave side are a load of bollocks. Anyone who really thought that we would have an extra £350 million a week to invest in the NHS has shit for brains and deserves to be disappointed. I understood quite clearly that once we leave, everything will be up for grabs and whatever is agreed will be the result of new negotiations.

There will be no automatic anything: but of course this works both ways. There are things we British want. As sure as God made little green apples, there will be things the EU wants from us. We should already be negotiating, regardless of Article 50, and it is very silly if either side is looking for reasons in order not to be talking. But if the basis position of the EU is going to be that Britain must concede full access to the single lab our market, then the negotiations will probaby be quite brief because this is precisely what most Leave voters voted against. We will only then need to talk about preserving the rights and status of everyone's diaspora of citizens in Britain and the British diaspora in Europe.

[Wendigo]

No surprise here

Brexit: Petition for second EU referendum rejected
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36754376

It was so pathetic it was almost funny as many of those too lazy to vote on the day vented their spleens in public on Facebook & other social media

Mind you our poll above is still open and still attracting votes

Not quite at 4.1 million but still a majority for Leave.

[vinceprince]

I disagree Scoundrel, the mandate was only 'to leave' the reasons were not asked in the referendum, indeed there was no plan or manifesto to even vote for.

It maybe politically uncomfortable but faced with the choice between that allowing in migrants and denied access to the single market resulting in economic decline (that would also be even more politically uncomfortable) I think the UK would cave-in like the Greeks did.

Also we can't argue as Gove did saying 'We're the world's 5th largest economy!' because already were not any longer. I wonder what position we'll be in when negotiations start?

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

I disagree Scoundrel, the mandate was only 'to leave' the reasons were not asked in the referendum, indeed there was no plan or manifesto to even vote for.

It maybe politically uncomfortable but faced with the choice between that allowing in migrants and denied access to the single market resulting in economic decline (that would also be even more politically uncomfortable) I think the UK would cave-in like the Greeks did.

Also we can't argue as Gove did saying 'We're the world's 5th largest economy!' because already were not any longer. I wonder what position we'll be in when negotiations start?

It is going to be interesting to see how it plays out. On the basis of the story so far it is going to play out very slowly.

The risk the politicians are up against is that if they fail to call an election to settle a mandate for the British negotiating position then they will negotiate without a mandate and whatever deal they get will offend someone (a lot of someones) regardless. They have already created delay with leadership elections and infighting. But one of the inescapable facts of this referendum is that, except the SNP, all the main parties have shown that they are out of touch with their voters. They will be badly placed if they agree terms with the EU which do not have consent with the electorate.

[benboe]

There is a lot of speculation in what or how negotiations so should go forward after article 50 is imposed.
To my mind the one thing that is set in to stone is the end of free movement of people.

After that the immigrants already in this country upto the start of negotiations should be guaranteed residency unless it is proved they conspired in criminal activity.

Now as to the trade deal you could use Norway, Iceland or Swizterland as a trade plan but like it or not the British are different to these countries.
First we have military that NATO and Europe rely on.
Second we have a superior network of intelligence agencies.
Third the amount of trade deficit between what we import against export with Europe gives us leverage.
No doubt there are other things we are not made aware of but under the right negotiating team we should do alright if not the UK government will be held accountable.
So worst case scenario
We leave without a trade deal .... Bankers move to France, big corporations move to Poland.
We trade through WTO tariffs.
At least then we will be steering our own ship.
So long term its win/win.

[vinceprince]

With the pound so low we're not going to be importing so many German cars now.

WTO tariffs are high enough to wipe out the profit margin in the business I work in and many others are in the same position.

Losing financial services and big corporations.
Not exactly win/win?

For us to concede in negotiations it takes one new inexperienced PM to give way on an issue , for the EU it takes all 28 experienced head of states to give way.

[benboe]

Win/ win in that if importing goods makes it too expensive to import goods that the country is forced to look into self sufficient and self sustaining methods generated within the UK economy that will increase jobs in deprived areas and balance out the economic inequality we now endure.
This is speculation but it should be a plan worth looking into.
This country changed beyond all recognition in the 1800s with the industrial revolution and has stayed there for over 150 years.
Now it is time to bring the UK into the 21st century with modern technology and modern ideals to drive forward a futuristic and sustainable future fit for the whole world.

[haroldeye]

The problem with the EU is a small number of people who rule it. Junker and Schulz and their like. They are implacable in their belief in the project. They f*ck up then they say they need more power.

For everyone else there is reality. We buy E18Bn worth of German produced cars each year just over 20% of their sales. Politicians may strut but money talks. The organisation of German Motor manufacturers have already said that Greece and the Euro going tits up are one thing but isolating the UK market would hurt big time.

Business is business.

[hoss]

Originally Posted by CARLTON BROWN

That's a great claim, but I don't see everyone in the EU receiving the same standard of healthcare, a good minimum wage, a fair retirement age, a good pension, reasonably uniform prices for goods and services, sensible taxation, etc, etc. They've certainly had decades to get these things right, but seem more interested in constantly expanding the EU, which is a massive drain on resources.

So those ones who were constantly putting on the brakes in the first place are now the ones who complain about a lack of progress?
"They" who wasted time include your very own government.