Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[Mal Hombre]

We're in uncharted territory now,No one knows what will happen.

[Old Jud]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

Whatever happens, I think the Tories will pay dearly for their failures throughout this miserable process. They have failed the country and I think they have endangered us to the likelihood of a
Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn, a prospect which disgusts me.

A prospect that concerns many of us, even some Labour voters.
Having said that, 'Theresa the appeaser' deserves to get booted out. She is so left of centre she would make a good Labour minister.

As a former Socialist and Labour voter (That's OLD Labour), I would rather see a Conservative Thatcherite style government than Corbyn and his cronies gain power.

[bjcb0]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

No, it was a one off vote, and like many younger remainers choose to ignore the result of the 1975 referendum stood for over 40 years.

The 1975 referendum was much clearer, though: 67% voted remain. Still, both Labour (and, I think, the SNP) supported leaving in their manifestos in the 1983 election.

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by bjcb0

The 1975 referendum was much clearer, though: 67% voted remain. Still, both Labour (and, I think, the SNP) supported leaving in their manifestos in the 1983 election.

The 1975 result is not in question, as has been pointed out here the Government at the time went to great lengths to confirm that the deal was a yes or no vote on staying in what was then portrayed as a European trade federation.
40 years on the picture painted of the EEC in 1975 bears no resemblance to the modern EU. If we had voted to stay in the EU in 2016 who knows what it would be like in another 40 years?
The only thing you can be sure of is that the article 50 escape route would definitely have been closed down.

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by ********

And as has also been pointed out, complete with the original leaflets sent to every single household by both the in and out campaigns, the fact that it was a political union and headed towards a united states of Europe was both made extremely clear and discussed at length.

In fact it was one of the main points made by the out campaign and was discussed at length in newspapers and on prime time TV, back when there were only 3 channels.

And as you have been informed previously and always conveniently forget, or to be more honest totally ignore, HMG confirmed in writing in their leaflets that this had been taken off the agenda

"There was a threat to employment in Britain from the movement in the Common Market towards an Economic & Monetary Union. This could have forced us to accept fixed exchange rates for the pound, restricting industrial growth and putting jobs at risk. This threat has been removed."

That seems pretty cut and dried to me.

Of course you will no doubt try to find some trite revisionist way of making this square peg neatly fit your round hole

[otokonomidori]

Originally Posted by bjcb0

The 1975 referendum was much clearer, though: 67% voted remain. Still, both Labour (and, I think, the SNP) supported leaving in their manifestos in the 1983 election.

A 24 year old Otoko voted to stay in the EEC - seemed like a good idea at the time although everyone knew that Harold Wilson only held it because the Labour Party was split over the issue.

It was he who is to blame for letting this referendum genie out of the bottle.

A settling of questions by referendum is an unsatisfactory procedure, because there are no simple political questions which can be answered merely by Yes and No.

[jacques22]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

The EU referendum didn't get the result Cameron or the great and the wise experts wanted. What makes you think the result of yet another one would be accepted by the whole country?
I think it would only deepen the divisions.

In case you haven't noticed, the UK is already deeply divided. Cameron opened the Pandora box, and things have gone worse since the referendum.
This country needs more clarity now. I don't think the politicians will provide that clarity. They need guidance from the people. That Brexit process is like a catharsis. British politicians are unable to heal the wounds, but the British people can.

Originally Posted by otokonomidori

What both referendums have in common is the lack of acceptance of the results by those who "lost".

The big difference between the 1975 referendum and the Brexit referendum is the difference in the margin of victory. In 1975, Remainers had much more legitimacy with a 67-33 lead. It's like a super majority in Parliament. On the other hand, a 52-48 lead is much thinner and helps explain the current parliamentary deadlock.
Another difference is that things went very smoothly after the 1975 referendum and therefore people more easily accepted the result, while Brexit has been a complete mess since the referendum. That's why so many people are now changing their minds.
There are a few sore losers on the Remain side, some who think the referendum wasn't fair because of the lies by Johnson & Co as well as the manipulations by Cambridge Analytica and Arron Banks.
But most Remainers have accepted the result of the referendum (see the stance of Labour MP's). What they want now is to prevent Brexit from damaging the country. That's why they want a soft Brexit. Of course, the problem here is that hardliners have portrayed a hard Brexit as the only 'true' Brexit.

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by jacques22

In case you haven't noticed, the UK is already deeply divided. Cameron opened the Pandora box, and things have gone worse since the referendum.
This country needs more clarity now. I don't think the politicians will provide that clarity. They need guidance from the people. That Brexit process is like a catharsis. British politicians are unable to heal the wounds, but the British people can.

A typical flaccid remainer opening if you don't mind me saying so, where have I ever hinted that I thought the country was not divided The whole country and each of the large political parties are divided on the EU (apart from the insignificant soft-arsed and frankly total Brussophile Lib Dems)

As my previous post stated quite clearly another referendum is not the answer, the public have already been asked to decide and we voted out. How that is put into practice is up to Westminster to negotiate. Most of what has been said since by Remain is still the ongoing remnants of Project Fear. It's all about doom mongering, how the EU is going to punish Britain and still a total lack of anything constructive even two years on about what we would be missing out on.

If the British public had been told the truth in 1975 about where the EEC was heading that 67-33 vote you refer to would have been massively different. I remember how divided the country was then (we have always had an ambiguous relationship with the EU) and the lengths HMG went to in ensuring we were made aware that we were not entering into a political union.

You cannot compare the two votes, the political backgrounds were massively different.

[jacques22]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

The whole country and each of the large political parties are divided on the EU (apart from the insignificant soft-arsed and frankly total Brussophile Lib Dems)

As my previous post stated quite clearly another referendum is not the answer, the public have already been asked to decide and we voted out. How that is put into practice is up to Westminster to negotiate.

That's hilarious!!!
You wouldn't trust another referendum to help the UK solve the Brexit issue.
But you would put your trust in British politicians, who have turned Brexit into a pathetic mess since the referendum. Go figure...

Originally Posted by Wendigo

Most of what has been said since by Remain is still the ongoing remnants of Project Fear. It's all about doom mongering, how the EU is going to punish Britain and still a total lack of anything constructive even two years on about what we would be missing out on.

The EU doesn't need to punish the UK for the simple reason that the Brits are very good at making a laughing stock of themselves with Brexit.

Project Fear was a bit exaggerated, but the bulk of the argument was correct. The UK economy is already taking a hit. Here's a comparison of the annual growth rate for the Eurozone and the UK:

Quarters Q3,2015 Q4 Q1,16 Q2 Q3 Q4. Q1,2017 Q2 Q3 Q4. Q1,2018 Q2
Eurozone: 2.0 ; 1.9 ; 1.9 ; 1.8 ; 1.7 ; 2.0 ; 2.0 ; 2.5 ; 2.8 ; 2.7 ; 2.4 ; 2.1
The UK: 2.1 ; 2.2 ; 2.1 ; 1.7 ; 1.7 ; 1.7 ; 1.8 ; 1.9 ; 1.8 ; 1.4 ; 1.1 ; 1.2

As you can see, the UK had a slightly better growth rate than the Eurozone before the Brexit referendum.
Then, in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016, the annual growth rate for both the UK and the Eurozone was about the same (1.7%).
And from the 4th quarter of 2016, the Eurozone started enjoying a much better growth rate than the UK. Even though the UK is still part of the EU, businesses and financial markets have already anticipated the economic impact of Brexit.
Without the 2016 referendum, the UK's growth rate would be around 2% now. But the result of the referendum has made the UK lose 1% of growth rate.

The UK economy will further dip when it will become obvious that there will be no deal. Businesses will implement contingency plans by December or January at the latest with job cuts and relocations:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ver-cbi-survey

And I expect a long recession when the UK leaves the Single Market. The 2008 recession will be a footnote in comparison.

Originally Posted by Wendigo

You cannot compare the two votes, the political backgrounds were massively different.

Of course, I can! Who are you to prevent me from comparing the two referendums? Same topic (EU/EEC membership), same country (UK).

What I can clearly see is that the Brits needed 40 years to change their minds after the 1975 referendum, while they only needed 2 years to see that the 2016 referendum was a disaster.
The only kind of Brexit that can get the support of the British people is a soft Brexit. Polls say that more than 60% of the British people want to stay in the Single Market:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8571846.html

And as the economic situation worsens in the UK, more people will back staying in the SM because they want to keep their jobs and they have wives and kids to feed. In the real world, employment and families are more important than ideology.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/britis...easing-2018-10
One in three Leave voters (34%) would now opt for EEA membership in 2018, up from one in four (24%) in 2017.

[Wendigo]

Originally Posted by jacques22

That's hilarious!!!
You wouldn't trust another referendum to help the UK solve the Brexit issue.
But you would put your trust in British politicians, who have turned Brexit into a pathetic mess since the referendum. Go figure...

Yup, it's what politicians are paid to do, they got us into this mess, they should get us out.

Originally Posted by jacques22

The EU doesn't need to punish the UK for the simple reason that the Brits are very good at making a laughing stock of themselves with Brexit.

All nations should be able to decide how they want to be governed, we made a choice that we want to untangle ourselves from the EU.... end of ... how it is done is up to Parliament

Originally Posted by jacques22

Who are you to prevent me from comparing the two referendums? Same topic (EU/EEC membership), same country (UK).

Where did I indicate I was preventing you comparing the two???
What I said if you read carefully is that the political backgrounds against which they were set were totally different. We have had 40 years of the EU and many of us who were in our twenties in 1975 have become disillusioned with the way the EU is heading.

We have had a referendum, and let's be honest who are you to prevent Parliament from carrying out the will of those who voted?

Originally Posted by jacques22

What I can clearly see is that the Brits needed 40 years to change their minds after the 1975 referendum, while they only needed 2 years to see that the 2016 referendum was a disaster.

You see nothing clearly frankly , anyone who has been awake since 1975 knows that the UK has become increasingly indifferent to the EU over the years, it did not take us 40 years to change our minds, again as we have said many times look at the rise of UKIP and how an anti EU party became our largest party within the EU

We did not need 40 years to change our mind, if the vote was offered in the 1980's it would have been much clearer. It took 40 years for HMG to offer us a chance to vote, there is a massive difference. If you cannot see that then it is pointless talking to you.