General Election 8 June

[gordian_knot]

Originally Posted by frankoboff

Getting mixed messages from the Tory press about May's current standing within her party. If recent polls are to be believed then Corbyn is viewed by the public as having dispalyed greater leadership qualities than May since the election. Many right wing journos are already suggesting the Tories need to rebrand to win another GE so that might suggest that they'll stall a GE for as long as they can. Autumn has been suggested.

Saint Corbyn can't fail at anything since he isn't actually doing anything, which makes it very hard for the Tories to pull things round. It may be that the country will have to suffer a disastrous Corbyn premiership before it comes to its senses. All those university students will be the first to regret it except those shooting for public sector jobs.

[vinceprince]

Thanks to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, “confidence votes” have been explicitly drawn to exclude votes on the Budget or the Queen’s Speech. A government only falls if it loses a vote of no confidence. It no longer falls if it loses a major vote, a Budget vote or even the Queen’s Speech.

The DUP could even vote down the Queen's speech then hold the Gov't to hostage for a confidence vote. I wouldn't put it past them. It may even be their plan.

This obviously increases the leverage of the DUP – and Labour’s ability to harry the government day-to-day. The DUP can hold the government up, by backing them in confidence votes. But they can also let them down by deserting them on essentially everything else to secure bigger concessions from the Conservative Party.
　
Far from being trapped by the Conservatives, the DUP have more leverage over them than a minor party has ever enjoyed in a hung parliament before.

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys could it?

[bloke57]

Originally Posted by gordian_knot

Saint Corbyn can't fail at anything since he isn't actually doing anything, which makes it very hard for the Tories to pull things round.

To be fair, that is the one advantage of any leader of the opposition. She or he can promise the earth and just has to make it sound convincing.

The problem comes when a PM (call him Mr Cameron for argument's sake) expects to be in a minority government and makes daft promises as a consequence...and then has to keep them.

That seems to be where all the trouble started.

[@llatse@]

I expect the Tories to try and cling on till the Summer Recess and then they'll ditch May go for a re-branding and another election around October before Parliament goes back again. They'll stall on Brexit Negs too........not much gets done in Europe in Summer as it's too hot in most states........it seems we're doomed to years of shaky govt just at the time we need "strong & stable". If I wasn't living in the UK or Europe I'd find it poltically fascinating and want to write a thesis about it all........but I'm lumbered, no wants another emigree
Of course events outside of Politics make a big difference, another terroist attack on a major city or a big tragedy like the Grenfell Tower Fire can change things overnight.
As for Corbyn......sorry mate I remember the 1970's and all that trade union shite and successive weak govt led to Thatcher. God forbid we get that back again. It's time to realise our adversarial politics no longer works, in the modern world I think you need a mix of scientists, business leaders, entrepreneurs and politicians to run the country. Some elected, some appointed. But sadly that aint gonna happen......too many vested interests in the status quo

[frankoboff]

Originally Posted by bloke57

To be fair, that is the one advantage of any leader of the opposition. She or he can promise the earth and just has to make it sound convincing.

The problem comes when a PM (call him Mr Cameron for argument's sake) expects to be in a minority government and makes daft promises as a consequence...and then has to keep them.

That seems to be where all the trouble started.

The UK's been a hostage of internal Tory party politics for the last seven years. I get the impression its all about winning rather than actual polices that change the country for the better. Anything with even a wiff of 'socialism' gets dropped as the right of the party get agitated and start making threatening noises.

I live in an area with a lot of Polish immigrants and no one was bothered by them ten years ago. The Tories fought two successive election campaigns highlighting 'Labour's failure on immigration' and it was only when the economy went tits up after decades of deregulating banking that the 'expel the foreigners' message gained traction. There were already pretty tight rules under the EU as to who was let in and who had to leave but for some reason we didn't implement them and the Tory government haven't addressed this during the seven years they've been in power. This is possibly the most divisive and cynical bit of manipulation I've witnessed since the 1980s.

Must add that the number of bottom feeders; both politicians and commentators that have made careers tapping into this negativity sickens me. It seems like being overtly racist is now protected under the banner of some US style misinterpretation 'free speech'.

[frankoboff]

Originally Posted by @llatse@

I expect the Tories to try and cling on till the Summer Recess and then they'll ditch May go for a re-branding and another election around October before Parliament goes back again. They'll stall on Brexit Negs too........not much gets done in Europe in Summer as it's too hot in most states........it seems we're doomed to years of shaky govt just at the time we need "strong & stable". If I wasn't living in the UK or Europe I'd find it poltically fascinating and want to write a thesis about it all........but I'm lumbered, no wants another emigree
Of course events outside of Politics make a big difference, another terroist attack on a major city or a big tragedy like the Grenfell Tower Fire can change things overnight.
As for Corbyn......sorry mate I remember the 1970's and all that trade union shite and successive weak govt led to Thatcher. God forbid we get that back again. It's time to realise our adversarial politics no longer works, in the modern world I think you need a mix of scientists, business leaders, entrepreneurs and politicians to run the country. Some elected, some apponited. But sadly that aint gonna happen......too many vested interests in the status quo

Not sure why you think public ownership of the public services that fail to service the public is going back to the 1970s. This isn't about socialism for socialism's sake- its about not being afraid to use left wing policies where right wing ones have failed. I doubt they'll be buying up car manufacturers or even successful rail franchises any time soon.

[frankoboff]

Also remember that the whole argument for selling off public services was that market competition would reduce prices for customers and increase efficiency- this did not happen.

[diamelsx]

Originally Posted by frankoboff

Also remember that the whole argument for selling off public services was that market competition would reduce prices for customers and increase efficiency- this did not happen.

It never will. What ends up happening is the maket ends up consolidating and reducing competition and thus eroding consumer leveraging on pricing. Privatization followed by deregulation always leaves the consumer dissatisfied.

[frankoboff]

Originally Posted by diamelsx

It never will. What ends up happening is the maket ends up consolidating and reducing competition and thus eroding consumer leveraging on pricing. Privatization followed by deregulation always leaves the consumer dissatisfied.

It works in some cases but not in others. I still think the government suppressing of 20% of the population's wages in order to combat inflation was a stupid thing to do- I'm referring to the state ownership of public services and numerous industries in 70s UK. Politicians had much more power then and could suppress wages. Also not sure why a politician should have a say in how a luxury car manufacturer is run (Rover and Jaguar as part of British Leyland).

However, not being an ideological type- this doesn't put me off returning some failing public services to public ownership. I'm also not squeamish about having state owned businesses competing in the market place.

[bloke57]

Originally Posted by diamelsx

It never will. What ends up happening is the maket ends up consolidating and reducing competition and thus eroding consumer leveraging on pricing. Privatization followed by deregulation always leaves the consumer dissatisfied.

This is a worldwide problem and has been particularly damaging to African nations.

On several occasions the World Bank or IMF have been called in. The first thing they insist on is privatisation of public utilities...with disastrous effects for the people but wonderful results for banks, hedge-funds, big business etc.

Makes you wonder if these institutions might, just might, be in the pockets of the rich and the banks. No surely not!