Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[judy84]

Irish Border


The UK planning for trade facilitation with no plans for anything along the Border. Various forms of declaration might be primarily electronic, with anything requiring inspection being signaled for inspection somewhere in general proximity to the Border, but not on the Border.

Mr. Niall Cody (Irish Customs): “In 2016, 6% of import declarations were checked and less than 2% were physically checked. The vast majority of these checks were carried out in approved warehouses and other premises with a very small number at a port or airport. The low level of import checks is the result of pre-authorisation of traders, advance lodgement of declarations and an extensive system of post-clearance checks, including customs audit, which are carried out at traders' premises.”


https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates.../2017-05-25/3/.


Easily 90% plus (probably more than 98%) of our cross border trade can be dealt with by technology and practices that are used elsewhere in the world (the US-Canada border for example), any major smuggling operations will be picked up after the event and the minor stuff will be less than a pinprick.

It will be hugely beneficial to have a bilateral border process in operation, as is the case in the Norway/Sweden border, and as described in the “Smart Border 2.0” report for the European Parliament by customs specialist Lars Karlsson.
A bilateral border arrangement can be agreed as part of an FTA, or even in the absence of a full FTA, under an exemption for frontier traffic under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).

Article 24 of the WTO's General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade says that if you are in a negotiation for a free trade agreement you can maintain your existing standards for ten years under WTO rules.
So we have ten years from the moment in which we leave the European Union to negotiate a FTA with the EU which would mean we could carry on with our zero tariffs.



As to Irish farmers or anyone else, they can continue crossing the border.Neither Ireland nor Uk are in the Schengen agreement, so they need passports to enter. Indeed we will welcome tourists from the EU. The free movement refers to living and working in the UK. Any EU citizen applying for employment, accommodation or benefits would need correct paperwork.
And the way to do that is via residence and employment control, not via border checks.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by jacques22

Thanks for the nuance. That still makes May's proposals all the more nonsensical. Why have a special customs partnership or a MaxFac fantasy when there is already the Turkish model? Unless May wants a Turkey plus plus agreement, of course.



The four freedoms (including the free movement of labour) only apply is you are part of the single market. Despite the customs union, Turkey does not have free movement with the EU.

I think the drawback with adopting the Turkish model is that it will not offer frictionless trade. Turkey is not inside the single market and so, while there may not be tariffs, there are various bureaucratic forms and procedures.. Transit time for commercial vehicles entering Greece or Bulgaria from Turkey is several hours, assuming all the paperwork is in order. We will need a much more efficient alternative in terms of how the border crossing works.

Presumably this is why we are hearing about trusted trader schemes, Max-Fac and so on. Perhaps we might have profited by having discussions internally in HM Government about what should be the strategy for post-Brexit relations somewhat sooner than this. One can't help thinking that we should have finished talking inside Britain by May 2018 and already have prepared our position for the June 2018 round of Brexit negotiations. Judging by the undisciplined histrionics from the likes of Boris Johnson the delay was for Tory Party micro-political reasons rather than being anything to do with serving the national interest ahead of party.

Theresa May and her cabinet are to statesmanship what Liberace was to shipbuilding.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by judy84

As to Irish farmers or anyone else, they can continue crossing the border.Neither Ireland nor Uk are in the Schengen agreement, so they need passports to enter. Indeed we will welcome tourists from the EU. The free movement refers to living and working in the UK. Any EU citizen applying for employment, accommodation or benefits would need correct paperwork.
And the way to do that is via residence and employment control, not via border checks.

There is a Common Travel Area in operation between Britain, Ireland and the Isle of Man and Channel Islands. The Irish government can require British citizens to produce some form of ID but not necessarily a passport. When I visited Ireland in 2001 I didn't even have a passport on me and I had no problems. The only issue I had was a long delay at the first petrol station I visited (Mitchelstown, County Cork) until my credit card provider verified my identity. It was the first time I had left the UK since 1986.

[jacques22]

Originally Posted by judy84

The UK planning for trade facilitation with no plans for anything along the Border. Various forms of declaration might be primarily electronic, with anything requiring inspection being signaled for inspection somewhere in general proximity to the Border, but not on the Border.

The problem with Brexiters is that they completely forget about The Troubles and think that the Good Friday Agreement is a nothing deal. There were more than 3,500 people killed because of The Troubles. Most people probably only remember the bombings in Belfast and London, but there were many attacks at the Irish border and near the border:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli..._peace_process
So you can bet any facility used for customs checks, even if it's 10 or 20 miles away from the border, will be targeted by the Republicans.

Originally Posted by judy84

Mr. Niall Cody (Irish Customs): “In 2016, 6% of import declarations were checked and less than 2% were physically checked. The vast majority of these checks were carried out in approved warehouses and other premises with a very small number at a port or airport. The low level of import checks is the result of pre-authorisation of traders, advance lodgement of declarations and an extensive system of post-clearance checks, including customs audit, which are carried out at traders' premises.”
https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates.../2017-05-25/3/.

Don't think that import declarations and physical checks will remain as low as 6% and 2% if the UK leaves the customs union. Those are statistics describing the situation when the UK is an EU member. Expect those numbers to increase once the UK is no longer part of the customs union. In the link you provided, one senator even mentioned that 7% of people are stopped in Norway. Also, you forget the impact on the Irish economy. Business costs will increase if the UK leaves the customs union. Some Irish businesses will go bankrupt on both sides of the border.

Originally Posted by judy84

Easily 90% plus (probably more than 98%) of our cross border trade can be dealt with by technology and practices that are used elsewhere in the world (the US-Canada border for example), any major smuggling operations will be picked up after the event and the minor stuff will be less than a pinprick.

The technology doesn't exist for efficient checks. Both British and European politicians have acknowledged it. In the link you provided, one participant in the debate even mentioned the possibility of smuggling expensive clothes. How can technology help in that case? How does a camera or high-tech scanner make the difference between a used dress or leather bag and a brand new one? And number plate recognition is completely useless to prevent smuggling. Same problem with health hazards, drugs, weapons. Only thorough physical checks can stop them.

Originally Posted by judy84

It will be hugely beneficial to have a bilateral border process in operation, as is the case in the Norway/Sweden border, and as described in the “Smart Border 2.0” report for the European Parliament by customs specialist Lars Karlsson.
A bilateral border arrangement can be agreed as part of an FTA, or even in the absence of a full FTA, under an exemption for frontier traffic under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).

You mention the US-Canada border and the Norway-Sweden border as possible templates for the UK and Ireland. Those are bad examples. First, those two cases don't take the Irish context into account. And second, both would rip apart the Good Friday Agreement.
There is a physical border between the US and Canada, with customs posts, gates, armed guards and ID checks:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wind...rder-1.4568069
This BBC story clearly mentions checkpoints, immigration controls and lorries that are stopped at the border (a Labour MP even claims that it's "more bureaucratic than Dover because each truck has to declare 26 different data elements for 40 different US agencies".):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43302493
Same problem with the Sweden-Norway border. There is no seamless trade: lorries need 3 to 9 minutes to clear the customs checks:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...says-1.3433722
This story in The Economist also mention border controls and European drivers queuing to have their papers checked:
https://www.economist.com/britain/20...ate-in-ireland

Originally Posted by judy84

Article 24 of the WTO's General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade says that if you are in a negotiation for a free trade agreement you can maintain your existing standards for ten years under WTO rules.
So we have ten years from the moment in which we leave the European Union to negotiate a FTA with the EU which would mean we could carry on with our zero tariffs.

You seriously expect Brexiters to accept a 10-year transition period?
Some think that a 2-year transition is already too long.

Originally Posted by judy84

As to Irish farmers or anyone else, they can continue crossing the border. Neither Ireland nor Uk are in the Schengen agreement, so they need passports to enter. Indeed we will welcome tourists from the EU. The free movement refers to living and working in the UK. Any EU citizen applying for employment, accommodation or benefits would need correct paperwork.
And the way to do that is via residence and employment control, not via border checks.

Again, you don't seem to realise the implications of a hard Brexit for the Irish farmers. They can freely cross the border today because Ireland and the UK are both in the customs union and the single market. But before the advent of the single market and the signing of the GFA, those same farmers needed 10 minutes to 2 hours. Don't you see the contradiction between enforcing customs checks and preserving seamless trade and travel? You can't leave the customs union and act as if the situation is the same as before.

[jacques22]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

I think the drawback with adopting the Turkish model is that it will not offer frictionless trade.

At least we can agree on that.

Originally Posted by scoundrel

One can't help thinking that we should have finished talking inside Britain by May 2018 and already have prepared our position for the June 2018 round of Brexit negotiations. Judging by the undisciplined histrionics from the likes of Boris Johnson the delay was for Tory Party micro-political reasons rather than being anything to do with serving the national interest ahead of party.
Theresa May and her cabinet are to statesmanship what Liberace was to shipbuilding.

Again, completely agree on that.

[judy84]

Mr Jacques, I have made some statements which I think you have misinterpreted, but I am not going to enter any arguments on here just give my thoughts.


Some of the advantages I have seen from remainers for staying in the EU:
No visa requirement or border restrictions for holidays or business travels to EU countries, no roaming charges for mobile phones, no restriction on watching Netflix in EU countries.

I can add a few more:
No more worrying about having to change money at EU borders because we will be forced into the Euro (and Schengen), no more worrying about defence budgets because it will be taken over by PESCO, no worries about higher wages when we can encourage cheap workers from Albania and other countries and our "quota" of immigrants not to mention free movement when German-based "refugees" are given citizenship, no worry about calculating rebate...there isn't going to be any, getting the economy moving by increasing inflation with an increase in Corporation Tax by 3% which goes to the EU and reducing the amount of tariffs that countries can keep by increasing the EU take to 90%.

The Eu budget is set to be €1.279 trillion for 2021 to 2027 up from €864.3 billion for the period 2007–2013.The figure amounts to 1.11% of the EU27’s gross national income (GNI), a significant rise compared to the previous budget cap at 1.03% of the GNI In 2016, the UK’s gross contribution to the EU amounted to £19 billion per annum.The UK currently provides approximately 12% of the resources available to the EU budget.If the UK were to stay in the EU the UK's contribution to the EU budget could be expected to be a lot higher than £19 billion pa.

[judy84]

Sorry edit button wasn't working for previous post


https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog...ext-eu-budget/


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...-3bn-1.3486204


https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gover...get/2017-10-31

[judy84]

The EU has launched legal proceedings against the British Government for repeatedly breaking the bloc’s tight air pollution rules.
EU judges in Luxembourg will be able to hit Britain with huge fines under the bloc’s “infringement proceedings”.

The EU's ruling's will continue after brexit.Barnier said in order for a trade deal to be signed Britain would have to continue to comply with the EU’s environmental regulations.

He said there could be no reduction in environmental standards after Brexit as Britain could otherwise seek a “competitive advantage” over its neighbours.
Barnier added a “non-regression clause” must be included in the EU’s agreement on the future relationship with the UK to guard against a softening of rules.


Some thoughts:
Wonder how much of this pollution is due to the German car industry lying about emissions. If proven could the UK lay a claim against Germany for damages?
Do they insist that every third party they have trade deals with must also abide by EU emissions regulations to reduce competitive advantage? If not, why not?
One point to note we have millions of EU citizens living in the UK and they add to the pollution levels. Do we get “pollution credits” from the countries they have come from? Can we pro rata any fines to these countries as their citizens are contributing?



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8355711.html
https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/d...nd-summary.pdf

[judy84]

Originally Posted by ********

Distressing how the government is only now figuring out what sort of deal it actually wants... Instead of say, two years ago before the vote, or before triggering article 50 around 18 months ago.

We are completely fucked.

The reality is that May can't do a thing until we have a legal framework in place as set out in the Withdrawal bill. The minute this goes through all May's options fall into place.

The treacherous, unelected Lords are doing their utmost to poison the entire Brexit process. They're aided and abetted by self-serving Remainer MPs, a Labour party willing to sacrifice anything to gain power, and an obstructive civil service wedded to EU ideology.

[scoundrel]

I find the May administration ideologically disgraceful with its grammar schools fixation and "consultations" over the dementia tax when the Dilnot Report is now seven years old and offers fair and reasonable solutions. But they face problems which the Labour Party would have to face as well if it was in government. The fault lines over Brexit are internal, not external. Whatever Mrs May decides will be unacceptable to a significant cohort of her own MPs and, if she gets legislation carried in the House of Commons it will almost certainly be because some Labour MPs will support it whether their party allows them to or not. Most Labour MPs are Remainers but there are quite a few who aren't. Seven of them defied the authority of their party and voted for the EU withdrawal bill last year, and others abstained.

Mr Corbyn would be in a worse bind if he were in office and trying to implement his manifesto promise to respect the referendum vote. He has the New Labour faction to deal with, 47 of whom voted against the Article 50 bill, showing their own determination not to respect the referendum vote.

When you are really struggling to marshal support inside your own party, it becomes harder than ever to confront divisive issues. Britain's negotiating position on the Customs Union and the Single Market are just such issues. When she called the 2017 General Election I imagine Mrs May was expecting to win a majority big enough to keep her party rebels, both Leavers and Remainers in their place. But she ran a bloody awful campaign, was woeful on television and in the media and proposed a crypto-fascist barking mad right wing equivalent of the hardline socialist 1983 Labour suicide note manifesto, right down to wanting to bring back hunting foxes with hounds.

One way or another this country will leave the EU and this in the end will safeguard our sovereignty and our rights as a nation. It will lead to economic disruption though and it is the job of the UK government to manage the process efficiently and avoid unnecessary refinements of torture. Bickering now over matters we should have agreed internally last year will not help us next month when Mr Davies meets Mr Barnier again. The European Commission watches our moves.