Current Politics in the United Kingdom

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

The Daily Mail has substantially changed it's editorial line since editor Paul Dacre was replaced by Pro-Remainer Geordie Greig.

Now it's the Brexit Hardliners who are the 'enemy'

Today's main story portrays them as 'Dad's Army' lead by the bungling Captain Mainwaring - Jacob Rees Mogg.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...nfighting.html

Funny how times change isn't it?

Newspapers and the media in general are jukeboxs. Whoever puts money into the slot picks the tune the jukebox will play.

[jacques22]

Originally Posted by judy84

Are price increases due to Brexit? It seems the French are also getting upset about prices.

More than 400 people were injured and one person was killed during France's Yellow Vest protests against fuel-price rises on Saturday, Interior Minister Christophe Castaner said on Sunday. Some 287,710 people took part in 2,304 roadblocks or similar demonstrations, according to the government.

For many involved it has become a protest against the rising cost of living and poor public services, especially in rural areas and small towns, as well as the government's taxation policy. President Emmanuel Macron's popularity ratings have dropped to 25 percent, a fall of four points since December, according to an opinion poll published on Sunday.

Yes, price increases are due to Brexit. Economists have already explained how the drop in the value of the pound has driven food prices up because the UK imports half of its food. See the Bartlett & Mitchell report above.

Also, what tells me that there's something off with UK inflation is the comparison with the Euro area. Brexit has already hit the UK economy when you look at the economic growth rate: the UK had a stronger growth rate than the Eurozone before the referendum, now the UK's growth rate is weaker than the Eurozone.
The same thing is happening with inflation. The UK had an inflation at the same level as the Euro area in 2015. Then from February 2016 the UK inflation rate is bigger than in the Euro area by 0.4 or 0.5%. That gap is getting significantly worse in the second half of 2017 where the UK inflation rate is bigger than in the Euro area by 1.5%.

Now the gap is smaller, even though the UK inflation rate is still bigger than in the Euro area. My guess here is that the perspective of a Brexit deal has contributed to the relative stabilisation of the pound, while the Euro area has more inflation because Europe is starting to feel the impact of the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration.

The Yellow Vest protests in France are due to Macron's taxation policies. Fuel prices are rising because the French government has increased the tax rate for diesel and petrol to encourage drivers to switch to hybrid and electric cars.
Seen in isolation, the hike in the fuel tax shouldn't be a big issue. The problem is the other taxes. Basically, the rise in the fuel tax was the stroke that broke the camel's back. Macron was elected on the promise that he would suppress the 'taxe d'habitation' (some kind of French council tax) for 80% of the French households. Unfortunately, Macron didn't get his timing right. He increased the CSG tax in 2018 and trimmed the wealth tax and the corporate tax also this year. As you can guess, the rich have benefited from cuts in the wealth and corporate taxes while the poor have been hurt by the hike in the CSG tax (a weird mix of tax and social contribution). To make things worse, the 'taxe d'habitation' will only be suppressed in 2020, there will only be small cuts for that tax this year.
Inflation in France is now at the same level as in the UK since May 2018, while France had a lower inflation rate than the UK for both 2016 and 2017.
When the UK leaves the single market, it will be interesting to see what will break the back of the British camel. Hammond has been quite generous in his latest budget to cushion the impact of Brexit, but the obvious danger is too see the British budget deficit go back to the level of the previous recession.

Originally Posted by Grouchy

I think the point I am trying to make is that the increases in "food" (and other) prices you quote are not solely down to "brexit". The increases you quote appear top be over a two-year period from 2016. It would be interesting to know what the increases in the previous two years (2014-16) were. Again, I have to state that - in my opinion - many of the increases you show are modest. What was the price of (for example) 1kg of Homepride flour in 2014? ..

I think Deepsepia has already provided a graph showing the deflationary trend for food prices in the UK for both 2014 and 2015. Here's the link, you just need to click on 5-year data to see the inflation curve:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...food-inflation
That means food prices were declining in 2014, 2015 and even 2016 before going up again in 2017 and 2018.
Here's a graph to see the Brexit effect:
https://www.cips.org/PageFiles/11559...917Hiprint.jpg

Originally Posted by Grouchy

I don't have the time or inclination to dig into financial reports as you do (I have a life to live) and I quite happily accept that the figures you quote are correct. Some of the increases in percentage terms do seem excessive but I still disagree that this is solely down to "brexit"...I think I'll leave it there..

That's a poor excuse. Nowadays, you can find almost any piece of information within a few clicks thanks to Google. Think of inflation as your favourite porn star, and I'm sure you'll find some useful data.

Originally Posted by deepsepia

You might take as evidence of the unreliability of your personal "impression" of prices the differences between the official figures-- compiled without any personal judgement-- and your estimates.

Your idea of inflation is formed by "what I pay attention to" -- which is not at all the same thing as "what prices are".

Those are not just personal impressions or estimates. The prices I gave you are actual facts. I go shopping at Sainsbury's nearly every week. Those price hikes are not fake, and I even admitted that the prices for more than 50% of my grocery bill have remained the same.
Also, the burger joints I mentioned are well known in the UK and I'm familiar with their prices because I tend to order the same thing, either the cheeseburger or their signature burger. Likewise, the restaurants I mentioned are typical venues people would choose for special occasions.
Even the official figures do show an increase in food prices but you deliberately chose to ignore it or called it "negligible". Why would food prices not rise when the value of the pound is going down and that the UK imports half of its food?
I'm totally fine with the official figures (the famous CPI), but I've explained in post #4661 why consumers feel more sharply the rise in food prices by highlighting the FPI figures. Why would a catering business like Bartlett & Mitchell lie about rising food prices? They make a living by feeding people. They are more knowledgeable about food prices than you and I.
Here's another article telling you how the Brexit referendum has impacted food prices:
https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/th...e-brexit-vote/
"Scots are already spending more than £400 a year more on everyday household items than they would be if the UK had voted to stay part of the EU, according to research published on Tuesday.
The falling value of the pound since the Brexit vote in June 2016 has caused inflation to increase at a faster rate than other Eurozone countries, the study by the People's Vote campaign says.
This means that the price of everyday food and drink items has risen faster than it would have if the UK had chosen to remain part of the EU, it argues."
In that article, the ONS (Office for National Statistics) also provides you figures showing the rise in food prices.

"Comparing this to inflation among Eurozone countries over the same period, it says the difference between the two illustrates how much the Brexit vote is already costing people.
It says the average Scottish household’s shopping bills have increased by £417 a year, driven by rises in the prices of everyday items such as sliced bread, milk and butter.
In June 2016 the price of 250g of butter averaged £1.36 but now costs £1.79, an increase of 43p. Coffee has also seen a 26p increase for a 227g bag, while sausages are up 45p per kg.
“These figures show Brexit is already hitting everyone’s pockets in Scotland hard, and we haven’t even left the EU yet,” said People’s Vote supporter Emma Currie."

Originally Posted by deepsepia

To take one example from the US: avocados were traditionally very expensive in Northern states, got steadily cheaper as you got closer to the Mexican border. Avocados in El Paso are cheap, in Spokane not so much.

If you happened to move from Houston to Seattle, you'd think "wow grocery prices have gone way up" -- but its just regional effects. Similarly, if you moved from Albanhy to the Bronx you'd find that Caribbean fruits-- breadfruit, plantains-- were suddenly abundant and cheap.

Again, comparing the US market with the UK market is like comparing apples with oranges. THe US is half the size of a continent while the UK is barely the size of an American state (larger than Florida but smaller than Michigan). Same with the population numbers (325 million vs. 66 million).

[bloke57]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

The Daily Mail has substantially changed it's editorial line since editor Paul Dacre was replaced by Pro-Remainer Geordie Greig.

Now it's the Brexit Hardliners who are the 'enemy'


Funny how times change isn't it?

You never said a truer word oh wise vince.

I have a personal friend who used to edit a well-known, right-leaning Sunday national newspaper. His paper was pro brexit.

Now he has been made redundant following the paper's takeover and, guess what, he is now talking about leaving the UK to live abroad.

[vinceprince]

Originally Posted by bloke57

You never said a truer word oh wise vince.

I have a personal friend who used to edit a well-known, right-leaning Sunday national newspaper. His paper was pro brexit.

Now he has been made redundant following the paper's takeover and, guess what, he is now talking about leaving the UK to live abroad.

I wonder why the Express and Mail owners are so keen now to move away from the Hard Brexit line. Maybe they can finally see the possible looming economic catastrophe and don't want to take any responsibility for encouraging it or they just see the whole Brexit issue now as a toxic disaster we just have to mitigate.

They probably also see most of their reactionary Hard Brexit readership soon dying off and they have to change their political stance and whole business model to attract younger 'viewers/readers' just to survive in the long term.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

I wonder why the Express and Mail owners are so keen now to move away from the Hard Brexit line. Maybe they can finally see the possible looming economic catastrophe and don't want to take any responsibility for encouraging it or they just see the whole Brexit issue now as a toxic disaster we just have to mitigate.

They probably also see most of their reactionary Hard Brexit readership soon dying off and they have to change their political stance and whole business model to attract younger 'viewers/readers' just to survive in the long term.

It doesn't automatically follow that people retain their exact political views as they pass along the usual progression between cradle and grave. I myself am a lot more conservative now than I used to be - experience taught this to me. In fairness, when I used to be quite left wing, I was still very much against the EU in 1975 (I was 12) and for much the same reasons I am against being part of it now. I did get used to being in it and I could, still can, see benefits to being in. However, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages as soon as you take a long term view, unless you actually don't care about nationhood and independence.

What you will find, I think, is that as people such as myself fall off the perch, we will be replaced. Many of those who think the EU is a good thing now will reconsider their opinion as their lives go on and they see more of what the world is like.

[Wendigo]

Brexit: May holds talks in Brussels amid scramble to finalise deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46284310


The EU have said they have gone as far as they can go, the world and his dog hate the deal they have offered, yet they all say that they can not accept NO DEAL..... run that one by me again.

Any moves by the EU will be merely cosmetic and no doubt covered by bucket-loads of caveats. The other 27 countries have already decided on their offer and will reject any major changes, we cannot keep going back in the hope a few extra scraps will be thrown at us so that May can return like Chamberlain in 1938 waving a piece of paper and promising that Santa will have his elves working overtime and bring everyone what they want this year.

For others to say that they can even at this later stage produce a better deal is pretty cynical and sounds as hollow as people saying that if they were in charge of the Titanic it would still be afloat.

By firmly stating that NO DEAL is unacceptable they are telling the EU that they have a very weak bargaining position. In any deal the sides must have the option to pull out of negotiations, it concentrates the minds on both sides.

I have a strange gut feeling that we are going to be screwed over by our own side and the EU will be the ones smiling on Sunday

[vinceprince]

Originally Posted by scoundrel

It doesn't automatically follow that people retain their exact political views as they pass along the usual progression between cradle and grave. I myself am a lot more conservative now than I used to be - experience taught this to me. In fairness, when I used to be quite left wing, I was still very much against the EU in 1975 (I was 12) and for much the same reasons I am against being part of it now. I did get used to being in it and I could, still can, see benefits to being in. However, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages as soon as you take a long term view, unless you actually don't care about nationhood and independence.

Maybe their economic viewpoint changes particularly if they acquire wealth (which is much more difficult now for younger people with property)
Regarding social values (race, religion, sexuality etc) it's unlikely that they will regress to intolerant conservative views.

I think for many young people 'nationhood' is not considered so important regarding identity, they have grown-up with the internet and see the world as a much more connected place without borders.

[ukcarter]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

I wonder why the Express and Mail owners are so keen now to move away from the Hard Brexit line.

Newspapers want to attract as many readers as possible so in cases of policies not clearly associated with their political base, like this, editorial follows readers not vice versa.

Another famous case was the "It's the Sun Wot Won it" where the losing Labour party was all too keen to blame their defeat on the Sun and the Sun was all too keen to take the credit but in reality the editor simply saw which way the wind was blowing.

[scoundrel]

Originally Posted by vinceprince

Maybe their economic viewpoint changes particularly if they acquire wealth (which is much more difficult now for younger people with property)
Regarding social values (race, religion, sexuality etc) it's unlikely that they will regress to intolerant conservative views.

I think for many young people 'nationhood' is not considered so important regarding identity, they have grown-up with the internet and see the world as a much more connected place without borders.

Conservative values are not necessarily intolerant, and "progressive" people are by no means necessarily liberal, enlightened or free from ignorance and prejudice. Having liberal opinions and having a liberal character are not the same things, as we saw for example in Vincent Cable and his very unpleasant and personal comments concerning older voters supporting Brexit - not really consistent with genuine liberal values IMHO. I flatter myself that I try to be reasonable and above all fair in my dealings with others; fair is a minimum standard, I would like to be better than fair when possible. But I do believe in standards and sometimes this means you have to be firm and hold the line against piss-takers. This is the philosophical basis of a lot of conservative thinking in this world.

[palo5]

Originally Posted by Wendigo

I have a strange gut feeling that we are going to be screwed...

That was obvious from day one, and anyone who thought otherwise was a fantasist

Brexit means Bend Over!