You wre addressing Wendigo, Comrade, but I would quite like to pick this question up as well.
Mr Cameron is using the EU referendum as a strategy to deal with the same poisonous tensions inside his party which crippled the John Major government twenty years ago. There is anti-European sentiment on the British left as well, exampled notably by the late Tony Benn, but most of it comes from the rightwing in British politics. Rather than be held to ransom by his own Little Englander right wing, Mr Cameron is making them argue their point of view before the UK public and either win the argument decisively or lose it decisively.
Now; speaking only for myself, I don't want a bloody referendum on Europe. I think it is not in Britain's interests to have one. Britain has good reasons to be dissatisfied with the way the EU is operated and the "ever closer Union" bollocks, but there is no reason why Britain should have to participate in "ever closer Union". We really ought to have reserved the referendum card for when we were being pressured to sign up to the Treaty of Lisbon, a European constitution by any other name. A referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon would make sense. A referendum to revisit a decision we made in 1975 makes no sense at all; it is like waiting until I reached the
Carter Bar before asking me whether I think driving from London to Edinburgh is a good decision.
What this referendum will achieve:
- It will make it impossible to demand a referendum for many years (decades) no matter what constitutional decisions and treaties are imposed on Britain.
- It will undermine our standing in collective bargaining, precisely because our EU partners will know we were not up for it when offered a chance to leave.
- It will seriously piss our European partners off and flop Britain's goodwill in Europe lower than whaleshit; no doubt it already has done this.
I do not think the British people will vote to leave. Outside the ranks of the Conservative Party right wing and of UKIP, Veritas and similar fringe parties, I do not see much enthusiasm for leaving. It might be that we
should leave; but there was no grassroots pressure for this referendum outside the Tory Party and UKIP, which is insufficient to carry a vote to leave. Unless there is a strong majority in favour of leaving, holding a referendum is against Britain's interests, because we will be obliged to do business inside the EU with a lot of other countries who will be feeling seriously fucked off with us. The worst of both worlds.