Quote:
Originally Posted by Wendigo
Let's be clear, a no deal scenario would only come about if the EU keeps rejecting every UK proposal and time runs out (...) The EU is not blameless in this so let's not throw all the shit at the UK
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The no-deal scenario only exists because the British government needed 2 full years to come up with a decent plan. The EU is the only negotiating party that has had the same clear goal since the Brexit referendum: to preserve the integrity of the single market.
The problem with the Cabinet is that they are not ready to accept the economic consequences of Brexit. It's now obvious that Brexit is an ideological project (rejecting the ECJ jurisdiction and EU laws, cutting European immigration by ending freedom of movement, stopping payments into the EU budget) that makes no sense from an economic perspective.
No deal is the most likely outcome because the UK still wants to have its cake and eat it. If you read the guidelines of the Cabinet's white paper, it clearly shows that the UK wants to retain some benefits of EU membership while undermining the single market.
For the record, Norway and Switzerland have access to the single market because they accept freedom of movement (yes, immigration) and contribute into the EU budget via grant schemes (which are like an access fee but don't cost as much as full EU membership).
In the white paper, the UK wants to have access to the single market for goods despite rejecting the 4 freedoms. That would be a better deal than what Norway and Switzerland have, and it could encourage EU members to leave the EU. May's 'common rulebook' (i.e. following EU standards for goods) is also a cunning way to avoid paying into the EU budget. The EU cannot accept that because it would destroy the integrity of the single market.
The UK has accepted that it will lose the passporting rights for financial services but it wants to sneak back into the single market for financial services by proposing a system of expanded equivalence or mutual recognition, which could offer the same benefits to the UK as the passporting rights. As a third country, the US only has a basic system of equivalence for financial services that does not give access to the single market. If the EU accepts May's proposal for financial services, the US and other third countries would ask for the same benefits, and that would again destroy the integrity of the single market.
May's customs proposal is a complete joke. Not just because the technology doesn't exist, but it also ignores the need for sanitary checks (avian flu, mad cow disease, swine flu) and would rob the EU of its sovereignty if the UK collects tariffs on behalf of the EU. Also it doesn't take into account the issue of smuggling.
In the white paper, the UK also wants to stay in some European agencies. The problem is that those agencies are policed by the ECJ. So if you reject the ECJ jurisdiction, there's no way you can participate in those agencies.
And finally, the Irish border. In a normal situation, there would be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic for customs checks and sanitary checks. But because of the history of violence in Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement, the EU compromised and suggested the option of a sea border, with checks done in ports and airports. May claimed it would divide the UK as a country even though Northern Ireland already has different laws than England (i.e. abortion). The only option left for the EU is to quarantine Northern Ireland in order to perform the customs and sanitary checks while respecting the WTO rules. Basically, any trade between Northern Ireland and Europe would have to go through the Republic.
Some Brexiters believe that the UK should have access to the single market or at least have a deal because the UK is paying a divorce bill of about £40 billion. Sorry, but any leaving member must meet his liabilities and therefore pay a divorce bill. That divorce bill does not entitle the UK to a deal or give access to the single market. If the UK wants to blackmail the EU and refuses to pay the divorce bill, the UK's credit rating will collapse and other countries will be scared to make deals with such an unreliable partner.
Because May's white paper is threatening the integrity of the single market, the EU cannot accept those proposals and no deal has become the most likely scenario. May does not understand that the EU is fighting fo its survival.
And because the UK rejects the ECJ jurisdiction and the 4 freedoms, wants to make its own trade deals, and doesn't want to pay into the EU budget, the Canada-style deal is the only option left for May. Unfortunately, May is wasting time by stubbornly hoping to get the same benefits as Norway or Switzerland without accepting the same responsibilities or constraints.
So no deal.