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Old May 16th, 2018, 09:12 PM   #1701
scoundrel
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For a long time the USA has held the position of political leadership of western and culturally westernised nations. But gradually this leadership position has been weakened. With the Iran decision I think a tipping point is very close.

First of all, Mr Trump has reneged on a signed treaty. This isn't the first time either - for example his repudiation of environmental agreements. Now, where I come from, if your given word is no good, this means you yourself are no good. Under Mr Trump, America's given word is no good and this means her usual partners, Britain included, have to wonder whether America is any good any more. Can America's business partners continue to act in concert with America if President Y is going to renege on agreements signed by former president X? Is America capable of honouring her commitments? Under President Trump I think the answer has to be "No" - his word is no good. If you think this is not extremely serious stuff, learn the history of Britain starting from the 1938 Munich agreement and ask yourself how Britain came to be so isolated and unsupported when fighting Hitler, one of the most loathsome enemies the free world has ever had. It is because Britain completely alienated many potential allies and friends by selling Czechoslovakia down the river. You see, if your word is no good, this means that you yourself are no good.

Think about it. Seriously, think hard.

Secondly, Mr Trump is driving without due care and attention. His new Secretary of State found out about the Iran decision on twitter. Now that the decision has been made (on twitter yet) the American government is trying to come up with a plan for what to do next. Having ignored Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China, Mr Trump's administration wants to be assisted by these countries in arriving at a new strategy. I am far from sure that any help will be given. In particular, unless there is constructive engagement both with the existing nuclear treaty partners and with Iran herself, I think any attempt by the USA under Mr Trump to reimpose a sanctions regime on Iran risks an extremely serious breakdown in relations with Germany, France and Britain, all of whom remain committed to the Iranian agreement. America is not so powerful that she can merely dictate to the rest of the world and this president is alienating America's long term friendships by acting arrogantly and disrespectfully towards America's friends.

Thirdly, if Mr Trump has a joined up strategy, he has not made clear what this might be. As far as I can tell he makes emotional decisions without listening to advice. The only consistent theme appears to be a restless urge to trash the legacy of his predecessor. Whenever he opposes something, Mr Trump seems to need to blame Mr Obama, as for example when he decided at the last minute not to open the new US embassy in London and cited his scorn for a bad deal made by Mr Obama as this grounds for this sudden announcement - the deal was made by Mr George W Bush incidentally. You would expect a businessman to make rational decisions, but Mr Trump does not make rational decisions and does not follow stable policy goals. This will mean that America loses influence and "soft power" as her usual allies will stay apart, rather as we cross the road to avoid people who walk along talking to themselves and exhibiting symptoms of mental illness.

The Iran decision leaves the USA totally devoid of credibility and this creates a dangerous vacuum where leadership is concerned. The only obvious alternative suppliers of leadership are Russia and China. This is because no one can be expected to act in concert with a country which continues to renege on agreements.

These are bitter things to say and I regret the need to say them very much indeed.
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