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Originally Posted by Ennath
China's economy has been struggling of late and so they've been turning up the nationalist rhetoric and claiming the entire South China Sea. If they get desperate enough, they might start playing chicken with neighbors like Japan or India, or try invading Taiwan.
And you've left out Iran, entirely. If any country is likely to get out of hand, they're it.
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The U.S. has the largest Navy and most far flung network of bases. It is the one nation that has most often attacked other countries since World War II.
China has the most men under arms, but I believe that Chinese leadership knows that wars drain resources from a country. They may be pushing some of their smaller neighbors around, but are certainly aware of the hornets nest the old empire encountered in Vietnam. Their neighboring rival India is just too big to tackle and has the same problems of population size as China. They are also so intertwined with Japan economically that military effort in that direction would be very costly. Things are friendly now, but Russia grabbed large chunks of Chinese territory in the previous couple of centuries. If China is really looking to expand, that will be the most likely and convienient direction.
Iran's internal dynamics may lead the mullahs to divert attention by external aggression, but we also have much evidence that there is a lot of pushback from their people who are tired of living in their "Islamic paradise." Iranians have always been a fun loving and sensual people, despite the efforts of a well organized minority of violent religious fanatics. My Lebanese Chritian friend calls the Iranians "a degenerate people."
The U.S. is the one country with a major military weapons industry pushing it towards aggressive action. I suppose the Russians may want to flex their muscles and look tough, but it is not clear that their economy will sustain a major conflict. Somehow, the world has allowed the U.S. to keep printing up money and sell bonds to fund its brand of military terror. How long this will last is anybody's guess. I suppose the good news is that American youth is so physically unfit and narcissitic that a serious damper is placed on the politicos ability to wage a mammoth war of aggression. Plus, we no longer have a merchant marine or ship building industry to move several million soldiers across the oceans.
Ah, but all this analysis gravely underestimates the power of human stupidity that courses through our murderous past.